While we are not yet out of the second wave of Coronavirus, many scientists fear a third. If it is more than likely, how far will it go?
The whole world continues to fight against Coronavirus. In France, successive curfews and confinements seem to have had a positive impact on the spread of the virus. Despite everything, the instructions are clear: you must not relax your efforts because the situation is still far too fragile. And if we are far from being out of this second wave, the likelihood of a third wave is growing. But how far could the latter take us?
Why a third wave
Since the start of the pandemic, scientists say the normal evolution of an epidemic is in a cycle oscillating between improvements and recrudescence. It therefore appears more than probable from an epidemiological point of view that a third wave will take place.
« We thus enter into the management of successive waves of recrudescence (not dependent on an exclusive seasonality) until the arrival of the first vaccines and / or prophylactic treatments (2nd quarter 2021?). So there are many months ahead of us with an extremely difficult situation. »
While some argue that many vaccines have been announced and could possibly prevent this third wave, it is important to note that at this time we do not know when these will be available. It will also take several months before everyone can benefit from it.
Can we avoid it?
If this third wave seems certain to many, it might be possible to avoid it. How? ‘Or’ What ? By carefully preparing the deconfinement. While the government has yet to make any official announcement on the issue, scientists and caregivers have high expectations:
« How do we avoid getting infected when we are together with the family? So as not to contaminate residents when you are caregivers? This is what we have to work on, otherwise we are off for a third wave next year. », Explained Luc Duquesnel, president of the union Les generalistes – Confederation of French medical unions (CSMF) to France Info.
An opinion shared by Professor Amouyel, epidemiologist, who emphasized LCI the importance of recognizing what has and has not worked in the past.
“To avoid a possible third wave, we must learn from the experiences of the past and put in place tools that prevent outbreaks of epidemics. “
He explained to the publication that this would obviously go through the respect of barrier gestures, large-scale screening and study of wastewater. For him, this will ” implement one restrictive measure, or several, depending on what is observed. And thus control the circulation of the virus in real time. “
How far could the 3rd wave lead?
It appears that if the strategy put in place by the government to deconfin fails, it would be catastrophic. According to Frédéric Valletoux, president of the Hospital Federation of France, who spoke to France Info, this could well lead us ” to a third wave, or even to a third confinement. »
This solution could be considered in a scenario where the circulation of the virus increases again because of a feeling of “security” in the face of the contamination.
« The worst would be that, under the pretext that the numbers are falling, this leads to a relaxation of behavior […] We must tell the French that there is a tunnel, which began in February and whose hospital workers are far from seeing the end! “
Countries already in the 3rd wave
While some remain skeptical about the likelihood of this third wave, it is already affecting a few countries around the world. This is particularly the case of Japan. If the number of cases is much lower than that of France, on November 19, experts considered that the country had entered a third wave with a further increase in cases of contamination. According to the TV channel TBS, the total for that day was 2,327. Whereas for the past few weeks, that number has fluctuated between 300 and 700. Iran and South Korea are currently experiencing the same situation.