In 1998, as Bill Clinton faced impeachment proceedings and “Titanic” dominated the Oscars, a snapshot of American foresight was captured. Gallup and USA Today surveyed 1,055 Americans via landline, asking them to predict what life would be like in 2025.
Looking Back at Predictions for 2025
Those predictions, now archived at the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University, offer a unique opportunity for reflection as 2025 draws to a close. Examining these forecasts reveals both remarkable accuracy and notable misses.
Some predictions proved surprisingly accurate. A majority of Americans in 1998 correctly anticipated that the country would elect a Black president, that same-sex marriage would become legal and commonplace, and that a “new deadly disease” would emerge.
Americans in 1998 also correctly doubted that routine space travel would be available to the general public or that contact with extraterrestrial life would be established.
However, other predictions did not hold true. Nearly two-thirds of Americans believed the country would have already elected a female president by 2025. More than half expected a cure for cancer, and 61% thought people would “routinely live to be 100 years old.” (That milestone has not yet been reached.)
A Pessimistic Outlook
The survey also revealed a significant degree of pessimism about the nation’s future. While 70% believed the quality of life would improve for the wealthy, respondents were divided on the prospects for the middle class, and most expected life to worsen for the poor.
A substantial 80% anticipated less personal privacy, and 57% foresaw a decrease in personal freedom. The majority also predicted higher crime rates, poorer environmental quality, and a decline in moral values. A full 71% believed it would become more difficult to raise good children.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, some positive outlooks emerged. Most Americans believed racial relations would improve and that healthcare would become more accessible, though potentially less affordable.
Gallup continues to conduct polls today, though with a reduced reliance on landlines. This allows for a comparison of how Americans’ overall perspective on the country has changed over the past 27 years. In the fall of 1998, nearly 60% reported being satisfied with the direction of the United States.
Today, that figure stands at 24%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What year was the original survey conducted?
The original survey was conducted in 1998.
How many Americans were surveyed in 1998?
1,055 Americans were surveyed in 1998.
What method was used to conduct the 1998 survey?
The 1998 survey was conducted via landline telephone calls.
Given these findings, how might current anxieties about the future shape predictions made today, and what unforeseen events could alter the course of the next 27 years?
