The NFL free agency negotiation period begins on March 9th, with players able to officially sign with new teams starting March 11th. This period often leads to teams making hasty decisions and analysts are cautioning against overspending based on past performance.
The Pitfalls of Pursuing Past Success
Hundreds of free agents will be available, all of whom were not retained by their previous teams for a variety of reasons – cost, age, injury, coaching changes, or scheme fit. According to analysis, acquiring teams should be wary of simply chasing players whose former teams didn’t aim for to re-sign.
Specifically, teams should be cautious about overpaying for pass rushers coming off a strong season. Historically, players who have a high sack total in one year often do not repeat that performance the following year. Teams may be tempted to pay based on 2025 performance, a strategy that often doesn’t yield positive results.
Data shows that overall production from a group of 16 premier pass rushers dropped from 84 to 63 sacks – a 25% decline. For ten players who didn’t even maintain their previous sack total, production fell from 56 to 22 sacks, a 60% decrease.
The Dallas Cowboys, for example, signed Dante Fowler, Jadeveon Clowney, and Payton Turner to one-year deals last year for a combined $12 million. These players produced a combined 11.5 sacks, costing roughly $1 million per sack. This approach, while not necessarily improving the defense proved more cost-effective than investing in higher-priced free agents.
Despite reports linking the Cowboys to players like Maxx Crosby and Trey Hendrickson, the team may be better served by targeting players identified by Bill Barnwell as “Capable starters.” Potential free agent targets include Joey Bosa (Bills), K’Lavon Chaisson (Patriots), Khalil Mack (Chargers), Boye Mafe (Seahawks), Odafe Oweh (Chargers), Kwity Paye (Colts), and Jaelan Phillips (Eagles).
Frequently Asked Questions
What date does the NFL free agency negotiation period begin?
The legal negotiation period for free agency will begin at noon ET on March 9.
When can players officially sign with new teams?
Players can officially sign with new teams starting at 4 p.m. ET on March 11.
What is one potential mistake teams should avoid in free agency?
Teams should avoid overpaying for pass rushers coming off a big year, as their performance often declines in the following season.
Given the inherent risks of free agency, how will teams balance the need for immediate improvement with the long-term financial health of their franchises?
