Fourth Winter Storm Brings Widespread Rain, Snow, and Strong Winds to Mexico
A fourth winter storm is currently impacting a large portion of Mexico, bringing with it the potential for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and even snow in higher elevations. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts significant weather changes from Monday, March 9th, through Thursday, March 12th, affecting over half of the country.
Storm Interaction and Temperature Drops
The storm is interacting with the 40th cold front, causing a marked decrease in temperatures. This combination is expected to generate showers and wind gusts of 50 to 70 kilometers per hour in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and the Gulf of California. The Sierra de San Pedro Mártir and La Rumorosa in Baja California are also bracing for potential snowfall or sleet.
Regional Impacts: North and Northeast Mexico
The 39th cold front remains stationary over northern and northeastern Mexico, leading to strong, localized rainfall, lightning, and possible hail in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and northern San Luis Potosí. Zacatecas is also expected to experience showers, while Chihuahua may see isolated rainfall.
Central and Southeastern Mexico Under Threat
Low-pressure channels over central and southeastern Mexico, combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, are forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Mexico City, the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo. These storms could also include hail.
Looking Ahead: Storm Trajectory and 72-96 Hour Forecast
The 39th cold front is expected to move south into the United States, lessening its impact on Mexico. Although, the fourth winter storm and the 40th cold front will move over northwestern and northern Mexico on Monday, bringing showers, strong winds, and the possibility of snow or sleet in the mountains of Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua.
From Tuesday through Thursday, the storm will gradually move over Sonora and Chihuahua, bringing cold temperatures, strong winds, and precipitation. The cold front will also sweep across the north and northeast, potentially triggering strong winds, heavy showers, and even tornadoes in Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. A reinforcing polar air mass is expected to arrive on Thursday, increasing the likelihood of showers and strong winds across the Gulf Coast and the Yucatán Peninsula, with particularly intense rainfall in Chiapas and Tabasco.
Valle de México (Mexico City) Forecast
Mexico City and the surrounding State of Mexico can expect partly cloudy skies in the morning with cool temperatures. The afternoon will bring warmer conditions, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, potentially accompanied by lightning and hail. Temperatures in Mexico City are expected to range from 10 to 12°C overnight to 24 to 26°C during the day. Toluca will be cooler, with lows of 3 to 5°C and highs of 21 to 23°C. Winds will be from the south and southwest at 10 to 25 km/h, with gusts up to 50 km/h.
Potential Hazards
Residents are advised to be aware of the following potential hazards: reduced visibility due to fog and smoke along the coasts of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Tamaulipas; localized flooding from heavy rainfall; downed trees and signage due to strong winds; and reduced visibility on roads and in urban areas due to fog.
Regional Rainfall Forecast – March 9th
- Strong Showers (25-50 mm): Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua
- Showers (5-25 mm): Sinaloa, Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Querétaro, Mexico State, Mexico City, Morelos, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Quintana Roo
- Isolated Rain (0.1-5 mm): Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán
- Snow/Sleet Possible: Mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua
Temperature Outlook – March 9th
- Maximum Temperatures 40-45°C: Guerrero (northwest), Oaxaca (isthmus)
- Maximum Temperatures 35-40°C: Sinaloa (south), Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Morelos, Puebla (southwest), Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo
- Minimum Temperatures -10 to -5°C (with frost): Mountainous areas of Chihuahua and Durango
FAQ
Q: What areas are most at risk from this storm?
A: Northern and northeastern Mexico are facing the highest risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and potential tornadoes. Coastal areas in the Gulf of California and Baja California are also vulnerable.
Q: Is there a risk of snow?
A: Yes, snowfall or sleet is possible in the mountainous regions of Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua.
Q: What should I do to prepare?
A: Stay informed about the latest weather updates, secure loose objects outdoors, and be prepared for potential power outages and flooding.
Q: Where can I identify the latest updates?
A: The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) provides the most up-to-date information: https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/
Stay tuned to the SMN for the latest updates and heed any warnings issued by local authorities.
