Title: Biden Admin Exploring ‘January Surprise’ on Israel, Retreading Obama’s 2016 UN Resolution
In a revelation that has stirred the Middle East political landscape, a senior member of the Hudson Institute has asserted that the Biden administration is planning a "January surprise" pertaining to Israel, drawing direct parallels to the Obama administration’s 2016 UN resolution. Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the institute and director of its Center for Middle East Peace and Security, made these statements on his podcast, "Israel Update," on December 31.
Doran disclosed that Biden’s government is considering a move mirroring the unexpected "Obama administration surprise" of 2016, specifically, the UN Security Council Resolution 2334. This resolution, adopted unanimously on December 23, 2016, effectively recognized the 1967 lines as Israel’s border with the West Bank and condemned Israeli settlements as a "flagrant violation" of international law.
"If the Biden administration follows through on its plan, it would mean that any developments east of the 1967 border—including the Western Wall—could be classified as illegal under international law," Doran said. This stands to have significant implications, as it could potentially reclassify many Israeli neighborhoods west of the Green Line as illegal settlements.
Doran, who formerly served as a senior director in the U.S. National Security Council, described this potential move as a repeat of former President Obama’s "kick in the groin" to then-Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government, but executed in a more indirect manner. In 2016, the Obama administration allowed Egypt to table the resolution, then abstained from the vote rather than casting a veto.
The Biden administration is reportedly considering leveraging Section 620(i) of the Foreign Assistance Act, which threatens to withhold military aid to countries blocking U.S. humanitarian assistance. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently sent a letter to Israel, referencing this very section.
According to Doran, the Biden administration’s ‘January surprise’ hinges on an official U.S. State Department declaration that Israel is violating Section 620(i) by blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza.Following such a declaration, the administration might choose not to impose sanctions on Israel immediately, but this official U.S. stance could fuel further international pressure on Israel, potentially culminating in a UN resolution or legal action.
Doran suggested that a two-pronged debate within the Biden administration might delay or even thwart these plans. While some officials, such as USAID Director Samantha Power, Secretary of State designate Kurt Campbell, and U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, reportedly support this initiative, others,like White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain and Amos Hochstein, a senior advisor to Biden on Mediterranean affairs, are said to oppose it.
The incoming Trump administration and the U.S. Congress could also potentially intervene to block these plans, leaving the outcome of this brewing diplomatic intrigue uncertain.
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