Why Bitcoin May See One Last Bull Run Before a 2026 Bear Market
Crypto analyst Trader Mayne recently warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a final thrust past the $100,000 mark—only to head into a prolonged downtrend that could peak around 2026. His outlook blends technical charting, liquidity analysis, and macro‑economic trends to paint a picture of a five‑year “super‑cycle” that ends with a steep correction.
Key Resistance Levels: $93,800 and the Daily Downtrend
Mayne points to two pivotal barriers:
- Annual open at $93,800, a psychological ceiling that has repeatedly rejected upward moves.
- The descending daily trend line that caps each rally, acting like a “speed‑bump” for price action.
When Bitcoin finally breaches this zone, a short‑squeeze could unleash a rapid surge, potentially testing the $105,000–$110,000 range.
Liquidity Landscape: The $97k–$98k Breakout Zone
According to Daan Crypto Trades, the critical liquidity corridor lies between $97,000 and $98,000. Repeated rejections near $94,000 suggest a consolidation phase is imminent. Once BTC clears the $98k hurdle, market makers may flip from selling to buying, amplifying upside momentum.
Probability of a New All‑Time High?
Mayne assigns a “just over 50 %” chance that Bitcoin will cap below a fresh all‑time high. In his view, the bullish sentiment is more about short‑covering than genuine demand, making a sustainable breakout unlikely.
Why the 2026 Bear Market Is Likely
Two macro factors underpin the bearish outlook:
- End of Quantitative Tightening (QT): The cessation of QT does not automatically trigger Quantitative Easing (QE). Without a policy shift, liquidity remains constrained.
- Historical Super‑Cycle Patterns: Each five‑year crypto super‑cycle historically ends with a deep correction, similar to the 2018 crash that drove BTC back to the $6,000‑$8,000 range.
Projecting forward, Bitcoin could retrace to the $50,000 zone by 2026—a level that historically acted as a decisive support before the next rally.
Ethereum’s Parallel Play
Mayne also highlighted the relative strength of Ethereum (ETH). With a potential rally toward $4,000, ETH may outpace BTC in 2024–2025—mirroring its late‑2021 surge where ETH posted gains ahead of Bitcoin.
For a deeper dive into ETH’s price dynamics, see our Ethereum price analysis article.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Will Bitcoin definitely drop below $100,000?
- Not necessarily. Mayne expects a final push upward, but a sustainable break above $100k is uncertain.
- What is a “short squeeze” and how does it affect Bitcoin?
- A short squeeze occurs when traders who bet on price declines (shorts) are forced to buy back positions, driving the price higher, often sharply.
- How does the end of QT differ from the start of QE?
- QT reduces the money supply, while QE expands it. The end of QT merely stops the contraction; it does not guarantee the Federal Reserve will begin expanding liquidity.
- Is Ethereum a better investment than Bitcoin right now?
- Mayne sees ETH potentially outpacing BTC in the near term, aiming for $4,000, but individual risk tolerance and portfolio goals should guide any decision.
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