In 1934, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck eastern India, resulting in thousands of deaths and widespread devastation. Interestingly, reports emerged from areas less affected suggesting a belief that an even larger disaster was imminent. This phenomenon caught the attention of Leon Festinger, a psychologist at the University of Minnesota, who began to explore why people might embrace anxiety-inducing predictions.
The Roots of Cognitive Dissonance
Festinger theorized that individuals experiencing contradictions feel discomfort and are driven to reduce it. He argued that people don’t necessarily seek out truth, but rather consistency. As he wrote, “A man with a conviction is a hard man to change,” often dismissing contradictory evidence or seeking confirmation from like-minded individuals. This became known as cognitive dissonance, a concept explaining seemingly irrational behavior as a means of alleviating psychological stress.
The Seekers and a Failed Prophecy
In 1954, Festinger and colleagues investigated a group in Chicago, known as the Seekers, who believed they were receiving messages from aliens predicting a catastrophic flood. The researchers went undercover, documenting how the Seekers committed to the prediction, with some even quitting their jobs and liquidating savings. When the predicted flood failed to materialize, the group reportedly doubled down on their beliefs and attempted to recruit new followers.
The research, detailed in the 1956 book “When Prophecy Fails,” was initially considered confirmation of Festinger’s hypotheses. However, recent discoveries have challenged the study’s objectivity.
A Reassessment of the Research
Until recently, Festinger’s archival documents remained sealed at the request of his widow. Upon their release, political scientist Thomas Kelly discovered evidence suggesting a significant level of researcher influence over the Seekers. His peer-reviewed paper revealed that at least five paid observers, and potentially half of all attendees, were infiltrators at some meetings. One research assistant even fabricated psychic messages, and a co-author was revered by the group’s leaders. According to Kelly, this casts doubt on the study’s conclusions and potentially misrepresents the dynamics of new religious movements.
Despite these recent challenges, Festinger’s theory of cognitive dissonance remains highly influential. It’s used to explain a wide range of behaviors, from why people continue to engage in habits they know are harmful—like environmentalists eating meat—to how individuals rationalize political choices, such as supporters downplaying connections to controversial figures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is cognitive dissonance?
According to Festinger, cognitive dissonance is the discomfort experienced when people encounter contradictions, leading them to adjust their views or reject challenging information to reduce that discomfort.
What did the Seekers do when their prophecy failed?
Festinger and his colleagues wrote that the Seekers recommitted to their beliefs and actively sought to evangelize, attempting to bring others into alignment with their views.
What has changed about the understanding of the Seekers study?
Recent research has revealed that the researchers involved in studying the Seekers exerted a significant level of influence over the group, raising questions about the objectivity of the original findings.
Given the evolving understanding of how belief systems are formed and maintained, how might future research approach the study of social and psychological phenomena to minimize the risk of researcher bias?
