Indonesia is considering the purchase of 42 J-10B Vigorous Dragon fighter jets from China for US$9 billion, a deal that, if finalized, would mark Indonesia as the second global operator of the aircraft and its first acquisition of a non-Western fighter jet. While Indonesian Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin initially announced the deal in October 2025, he later clarified that the purchase is still under consideration.
A Symbolic Shift in Defence Strategy
Analysts suggest the potential deal is less about immediate operational gains and more about diplomatic signalling. The acquisition would position China as a credible alternative supplier of advanced military technology, particularly as Western systems face potential delays or restrictions. For Indonesia, the J-10s would serve as an interim solution while it awaits the arrival of fifth-generation fighters, bolstering its air defence capabilities across its vast archipelago and reinforcing its regional power status.
Addressing Capability Gaps
Indonesia’s current air force relies on 25 refurbished F-16s acquired in 2011, which are nearing obsolescence. President Prabowo Subianto aims to modernize the fleet with advanced fighters like Turkey’s KAAN and South Korea’s KF-21, but these are not expected to be operational until the mid-2030s. Deliveries of 42 Dassault Rafales, already procured for US$8 billion, are anticipated by 2030, while negotiations for F-15EX jets have stalled due to cost. The J-10s, already in China’s inventory, offer a quicker and more readily available solution.
The J-10s have demonstrated effectiveness in conflict, notably during the May 2025 India–Pakistan conflict, and have been deployed by China for maritime patrols in the South and East China Seas and around the Taiwan Strait, highlighting their suitability for Indonesia’s expansive maritime domain.
Implications for Regional Power Dynamics
Beyond immediate defence needs, the potential acquisition reflects Indonesia’s pursuit of great-power status. A 2021 Lowy Institute poll indicated that Indonesia’s primary security threats are domestic, suggesting the J-10s are more about projecting power than deterring external adversaries. The deal complements other recent acquisitions, including an Italian aircraft carrier and Turkey’s KHAN ballistic missile system, showcasing Indonesia’s growing strategic influence in Southeast Asia.
For China, the deal represents a strengthening of its “peripheral diplomacy” strategy in Southeast Asia, a region crucial to its security environment. While defence cooperation has historically been a weak point in the relationship, recent agreements and the resumption of joint military exercises suggest a growing level of trust.
What Could Happen Next?
If finalised, the J-10 deal could pave the way for further defence acquisitions from China. However, Indonesia may face challenges integrating the Chinese aircraft into its existing fleet, potentially leading to maintenance and interoperability issues. The deal could also draw scrutiny from the United States, potentially leading to diplomatic pressure. It is also possible that the deal will not be finalized, and Indonesia will continue to pursue alternative fighter options.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary significance of the J-10 deal?
The significance of the J-10 deal lies more in its diplomatic symbolism than in its operational value, positioning China as a credible alternative supplier of advanced military technology.
What is Indonesia’s current air force capability?
Indonesia’s air force currently relies on 25 refurbished F-16s acquired in 2011, which are approaching obsolescence and lack advanced systems.
What is China’s “peripheral diplomacy strategy”?
China’s “peripheral diplomacy strategy” prioritizes Southeast Asia as a core region shaping its security environment, where developments directly affect Beijing’s strategic posture.
As Indonesia navigates its defence modernization efforts, how might this potential deal with China reshape its relationships with traditional Western partners?
