The Shifting Sands of Global Order: What Trump’s National Security Strategy Means for New Zealand and Beyond
President Trump’s recently unveiled National Security Strategy isn’t just a policy document; it’s a seismic shift. It signals a definitive break from decades of US foreign policy, one that challenges the foundations of the international order New Zealand and many other nations have relied upon since World War II. The strategy, as highlighted by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, effectively acknowledges “the West as we knew it no longer exists.”
A World Divided: The Rise of Great Power Competition
The core of the new strategy prioritizes state sovereignty and a world managed by a “concert of great powers” – the US, China, Russia, India, and Japan. This is a stark departure from the post-war emphasis on multilateral institutions and a rules-based order. Instead of actively promoting democracy and international cooperation, the US under Trump appears focused on securing its own interests, even if it means aligning with, or at least tolerating, authoritarian regimes. This is evidenced by the strategy’s willingness to support far-right populist parties in Europe that oppose “elite-driven, anti-democratic restrictions.”
This isn’t simply rhetoric. The administration’s alignment with Project 2025, an ultra-conservative policy blueprint, demonstrates a clear intention to reshape both domestic and international policy. The controversial statements from Vice-President JD Vance, questioning the democratic legitimacy of EU states, further underscore this shift.
New Zealand’s Delicate Dance: Softly-Softly and Its Limits
For New Zealand, traditionally a staunch advocate for multilateralism and the United Nations, this presents a significant dilemma. The current coalition government has largely adopted a “softly-softly” approach, attempting to avoid direct confrontation with the Trump administration. This strategy, born from the belief that New Zealand is too small to significantly influence US policy, has involved declining to publicly support allies facing pressure from Washington, remaining silent on issues like the situation in Gaza, and avoiding challenges to US trade protectionism.
However, as recent events demonstrate, this approach has yielded limited results. Despite the quiet diplomacy, New Zealand has been hit with a 15% tariff on exports to the US, a clear indication that avoiding offense doesn’t guarantee favorable treatment. The assumption that a low profile would persuade Trump to soften his policies has proven demonstrably false.
Did you know? New Zealand’s average tariff on US imports is just 0.3%, with few restrictions, highlighting the imbalance in trade relations.
The Erosion of Trust and the Rise of Scepticism
The implications extend beyond trade. Trump’s strategy undermines the very foundations of the international order that has provided stability and predictability for small and medium-sized powers like New Zealand. The focus on bilateral deals and great power competition leaves less room for countries that rely on international law and institutions to resolve disputes and address global challenges.
Compounding this is a growing sense of distrust in both the US and China among New Zealanders. Recent polling reveals low levels of confidence in both nations acting responsibly on the world stage. This internal skepticism further complicates New Zealand’s foreign policy options.
Navigating a New Reality: Strategic Realignment and Diversification
The time for “softly-softly” diplomacy is over. New Zealand must reassess its relationship with the US, acknowledging that the post-war ideal of the US as a champion of liberal democratic values is no longer tenable. While maintaining defense and security cooperation through initiatives like AUKUS Pillar Two and Operation Olympic Defender is prudent, a broader strategic realignment is necessary.
This realignment should focus on several key areas:
- Diversifying Partnerships: Strengthening relationships with countries that share New Zealand’s values and commitment to multilateralism, such as Canada, the EU, and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Investing in Regional Security: Increasing New Zealand’s contribution to regional security initiatives, particularly in the Pacific, to demonstrate its commitment to stability and cooperation.
- Championing Multilateralism: Actively advocating for the strengthening of international institutions and the rule of law, even in the face of US resistance.
- Economic Resilience: Reducing reliance on any single trading partner and diversifying export markets to mitigate the impact of protectionist policies.
Pro Tip: Focus on building coalitions with like-minded nations to amplify New Zealand’s voice on the international stage.
The Future of the Rules-Based Order
The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy represents a fundamental challenge to the post-war international order. Whether this represents a temporary deviation or a permanent shift remains to be seen. However, for countries like New Zealand, the need to adapt and navigate this new reality is urgent. A passive approach will only leave New Zealand vulnerable to the whims of larger powers. A proactive strategy, based on diversification, multilateralism, and a clear articulation of its values, is essential to safeguarding New Zealand’s interests in a rapidly changing world.
FAQ
Q: What is AUKUS Pillar Two?
A: AUKUS Pillar Two is a security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States focused on developing advanced military capabilities, including conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines.
Q: What is Project 2025?
A: Project 2025 is a conservative policy plan developed by the Heritage Foundation outlining a vision for a second Trump administration, encompassing domestic and foreign policy changes.
Q: Why is New Zealand adopting a “softly-softly” approach?
A: New Zealand believes it is too small to significantly influence US policy and hopes to avoid provoking the Trump administration by maintaining a low profile.
Q: What are the risks of this approach?
A: The “softly-softly” approach has not yielded positive results and risks being interpreted as support for Trump’s policies, while failing to protect New Zealand’s interests.
Reader Question: “How can New Zealand balance its commitment to multilateralism with the need for security cooperation with the US?”
A: New Zealand can continue to participate in security initiatives where its interests align with the US, while simultaneously advocating for a rules-based international order and strengthening partnerships with other like-minded nations.
Further Reading: Explore Operation Olympic Defender and New Zealand’s role in regional security.
What are your thoughts on New Zealand’s foreign policy in this new era? Share your comments below!
