As 2026 begins, Venezuela remains under the leadership of Nicolás Maduro, despite a contested election in July 2024 and ongoing efforts to remove him from power. The situation is further complicated by escalating intervention from the United States, including the bombing of alleged drug smuggling boats and a recent CIA operation within Venezuelan territory.
A Shifting U.S. Strategy
The U.S. campaign against Maduro has evolved, initially focusing on accusations that Maduro “opened the prisons” to allow members of the Tren de Aragua gang to “invade” the United States. This narrative, repeated during Donald Trump’s campaign, led to the designation of the Cártel de los Soles as a terrorist organization on July 25th. The U.S. subsequently deployed naval forces to the Caribbean.
Since September, actions have included the bombing of boats and, most recently, the destruction of a purported drug storage facility. While Trump appears to be directing the response, the actions have generated internal opposition within both parties in Congress and even within his own MAGA movement. His approval ratings are currently at a low point during his presidency, and his chances in upcoming midterm elections are diminishing.
Conflicting Justifications and Potential Costs
The justifications for U.S. intervention have been inconsistent, ranging from concerns about drugs and terrorism to national security and, most recently, demands for Venezuela to compensate the U.S. for allegedly stolen oil assets. Despite the aggressive stance, Trump retains the option of negotiating Maduro’s departure or announcing a strategic withdrawal. He could potentially claim success by asserting an end to drug trafficking from Venezuela, defeating both the Cártel de los Soles and the Tren de Aragua.
Venezuela’s opposition, led by María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, is reportedly confident that international pressure on Maduro will continue. David Smolansky, a spokesperson for the Comando Con Venezuela, stated that the opposition is prepared for a transition, but acknowledged a lack of coordination with the U.S. government.
Smolansky also noted that while the opposition seeks freedom, peace, and a stable democracy for Venezuela, these principles have not been publicly addressed by President Trump in relation to the situation. Should Maduro leave power, Trump may seek to extract a significant “price” from Venezuela, potentially creating further economic and institutional challenges for the country.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current political situation in Venezuela?
Nicolás Maduro remains in power despite a contested election and ongoing efforts to remove him. The U.S. has increased its intervention, but a clear resolution remains elusive.
What has been the U.S. justification for intervening in Venezuela?
The justifications have shifted, including concerns about drugs, terrorism, national security, and alleged stolen oil assets.
Is there coordination between the Venezuelan opposition and the U.S. government?
According to David Smolansky, communication exists, but there is no formal coordination or articulation between the two.
As the situation unfolds, will the costs of intervention – political, economic, and moral – be adequately addressed to ensure a sustainable future for Venezuela?
