Five state elections in 2026 have the potential to significantly reshape Germany’s political landscape. According to current polling data, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is experiencing gains across the board, while parties currently in government are seeing declines in support.
AfD Gains Momentum, Left Party Could Also See Gains
The AfD’s surge in support, even in western states, combined with declining numbers for parties currently in power, could disrupt established political alignments in the coming year. Political scientist Stefan Merz of Infratest dimap told tagesschau.de that forming governments is likely to become more complex. “This is a development that has been ongoing for some time. We are unlikely to see the small, intra-camp coalitions that were previously the norm.”
In eastern states, the trend points towards all-party coalitions against the AfD, or minority governments, as already seen in Thuringia and Saxony.
Baden-Württemberg: Cem Özdemir as Minister President?
The election year begins on March 8th with the state election in Baden-Württemberg. The state is currently governed by a Green-Black coalition. Recent polls show the Greens losing ground, while the CDU gains slightly and the AfD makes significant gains. The question is whether a CDU Minister President will emerge.
According to Merz, this is not certain. “The people of Baden-Württemberg clearly prefer the Green candidate Cem Özdemir as the next Minister President.” If he can successfully focus the campaign on his personal appeal and overcome existing reservations about the Greens, he has a chance not only to come in second, but even to win the election.
Rhineland-Palatinate: A New Government Likely
A new governing coalition is very likely in Rhineland-Palatinate, where voting takes place on March 22nd. The current coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP no longer has a majority in the polls. An SPD-CDU coalition is a possibility after the election. “But who will lead this coalition is still open at this point,” says Merz. The popularity of the incumbent Minister President Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) could be a deciding factor, though both parties face headwinds from national politics.
Saxony-Anhalt: Breaking the Dam?
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt are known for being open to new ideas. Will they give the AfD an absolute majority on September 6th, 2026, making it the first party to lead the state? Merz cautions that such a scenario could trigger significant counter-mobilization, a pattern often seen in eastern German elections.
If the AfD does not achieve an absolute majority, Merz believes a CDU-led minority government is most realistic, “supported by tolerance from the Left Party and possibly the BSW, similar to the models we currently see in Thuringia and Saxony.”
Will the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt break its “firewall” against the AfD, as some speculate? Merz does not believe so. The stronger the AfD becomes, “the less likely cooperation becomes.” In such a scenario, the CDU would be a junior partner to the AfD – “and I find that difficult to imagine, both in terms of toleration and a real coalition.”
Minority Governments as an Eastern Standard?
As long as no one is willing to cooperate with the AfD and the CDU maintains its decision to not work with the Left Party, minority governments remain the only option in the east. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where a new state parliament will be elected on September 20th, a SPD-led government is likely.
Merz believes this is the case. He says: “Minister President Manuela Schwesig is no longer as popular as she once was.” However, her SPD will “very likely” finish ahead of the other parties – with the exception of the AfD.
Berlin: A Shift in Coalitions?
The CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin will likely not continue. At least, that’s what the polls suggest, which – in line with the national trend – show gains for both the AfD and the Left Party. “It is very likely that a majority from the SPD, Greens and Left Party could be formed in Berlin,” says Stefan Merz. Which coalition will ultimately emerge is “no longer a matter of mathematics,” but depends on the decisions of the potential partners. The SPD and Greens may face a decision of whether to become junior partners to the CDU or the Left Party.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current trend in these state elections?
The AfD is gaining support across all five states, while parties currently in government are experiencing declines in the polls.
What is a “firewall” in the context of German politics?
A “firewall” refers to the refusal of established parties, particularly the CDU, to cooperate or form coalitions with the AfD.
What role do individual Minister Presidents play in these elections?
The popularity of the incumbent Minister President can significantly influence the outcome of the elections, potentially altering the results predicted by current polls.
As these elections approach, will voters prioritize established political norms or embrace the changing dynamics reflected in the rising support for the AfD and other parties?
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