Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration announced a 40% decrease in daily homicides nationwide since she took office. The data, presented on Thursday, show a decline from an average of 87 daily homicides in September 2024 to 52 in December 2025. Sheinbaum has emphasized these figures, in part, as a demonstration to the U.S. government of Mexico’s progress in combating organized crime.
Homicide Rates and Broader Trends
According to government data, Mexico’s homicide rate in 2025 was 17.5 killings per 100,000 residents. This is a significant drop from 29.1 homicides per 100,000 residents in 2018 and 25.4 in 2024. For comparison, preliminary data indicates the U.S. had a homicide rate of 4 killings per 100,000 people last year.
Sheinbaum attributes the reduction to a new law enforcement strategy focused on intelligence gathering and improved coordination among public security agencies. She has also pointed to increased arrests and drug seizures as evidence of her administration’s commitment to dismantling criminal organizations controlling the drug market and sectors like agriculture.
Geopolitical Context and Security Concerns
The announcement comes amid heightened tensions with the U.S., where President Trump has repeatedly threatened military intervention in Mexico, alleging the country is “governed by the cartels.” These threats have intensified following a U.S. special forces operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
Despite the reported decline in homicides, security analysts caution against interpreting the data as a complete picture of the security situation. Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa, noted that other forms of violence, including forced disappearances and femicides, are on the rise. He stated, “It’s impossible to say that the country is being pacified,” and argued for a broader assessment of “lethal crimes.”
Cartel-related violence continues to be a significant issue, particularly in northern Mexico, where factions of the Sinaloa cartel are engaged in conflicts, and in Michoacán, where the Cartel de Jalisco New Generation is vying for control of drug trafficking routes and industries like avocado and lime production. Last year, the assassination of Mayor Carlos Manzo in Michoacán, who had publicly called for stronger action against criminal groups, prompted widespread protests and a military response from Sheinbaum’s administration.
What Could Happen Next
If the trend of decreasing homicides continues, it could potentially ease some of the pressure from the U.S. government. However, a sustained increase in other violent crimes could undermine these gains and reignite calls for stronger action. It is also possible that cartel activity could shift geographically, leading to increased violence in previously unaffected areas. Further, the ongoing conflict between cartels could escalate, potentially destabilizing regions and increasing the risk to civilians.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is President Sheinbaum’s strategy for reducing crime?
Sheinbaum credited a new law enforcement strategy that focuses on intelligence gathering and improving coordination across the various agencies that work on public security.
What concerns have been raised about the reported decrease in homicides?
Some security analysts, like Armando Vargas, have said the data do not present the full story, and noted that other indicators of violence, such as kidnappings and forced disappearances, are up.
What is the current situation with U.S.-Mexico relations regarding security?
For months, Sheinbaum has sought to ward off threats of U.S. military action in Mexico by President Trump, who says Mexico is “governed by the cartels” and that Sheinbaum has not done enough to confront them.
Given these complex dynamics, how might a more comprehensive approach to measuring and addressing violence in Mexico impact the country’s security outlook?