Pennsylvania residents are bracing for a potentially historic winter storm this weekend, described by one forecaster as “the biggest major winter storm forecast of my lifetime.” The approaching system, currently tracking across the Pacific, is drawing increased attention due to favorable meteorological conditions aligning for significant snowfall and hazardous travel conditions.
Meteorological Setup
The storm’s potential stems from a confluence of atmospheric factors. Meteorologists are observing a “50/50 low” combined with a strong west-based negative NAO block, alongside a western ridge that will allow a trough to develop over the southeastern United States. This setup is expected to lead to the phasing of the polar and subtropical jet streams, bringing cold air and moisture together across a wide swath of the East Coast.
Potential Impacts & Scenarios
The storm’s timing suggests snow will begin moving into Pennsylvania southwest to northeast Saturday evening, quickly intensifying. Travel conditions are expected to become hazardous, potentially impossible, throughout Sunday, with snowfall continuing into Monday morning. Temperatures during the peak of the storm are forecast to be in the single digits to lower teens, rendering pre-salting and pretreatment ineffective.
Forecasters have outlined three potential scenarios, each with varying degrees of impact:
- Scenario 1 (45% Probability): The most likely scenario, bringing significant to crippling impacts, particularly in southern Pennsylvania, with potential blizzard conditions.
- Scenario 2 (30% Probability): A southerly trend would shift the heaviest snowfall to southern Pennsylvania, still resulting in significant impacts.
- Scenario 3 (25% Probability): A more northern track could bring widespread, crippling snowfall and higher wind gusts across the state.
What to Expect Next
Meteorologists will continue to refine the forecast as the storm approaches. Residents with travel plans from Saturday night through Monday are advised to consider backup plans or rescheduling. Further updates will be available on the Facebook page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the potential snowfall amounts?
Snowfall amounts will vary depending on the storm’s track, but categories range from moderate (3″+) to crippling (18″+). Specific amounts will become clearer as the storm nears.
When will the storm begin to impact Pennsylvania?
Snow is expected to begin moving into Pennsylvania southwest to northeast Saturday evening and intensify overnight.
What areas are most likely to be affected?
Southern Pennsylvania is currently forecast to receive the heaviest snowfall, but significant impacts are possible across the entire state depending on the storm’s track.
Given the potential for a significant winter event, what steps are you taking to prepare for the weekend?
