France’s Realist Turn: A Harbinger of Geopolitical Shifts?
In December 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a stark assessment of the international landscape, declaring an “era of predators” and asserting France’s need to be “feared” – particularly at sea. This wasn’t merely rhetoric. The announcement of a new nuclear-powered aircraft carrier cemented a forty-year commitment to global power projection, signaling a profound shift in French strategic doctrine. But is this an isolated move, or a symptom of a broader trend among European nations reassessing their place in a rapidly changing world?
The Erosion of Liberal Internationalism
For decades, European foreign policy has been underpinned by liberal internationalism – the belief that cooperation, institutions, and shared norms can mitigate conflict and foster peace. However, recent events have severely challenged this paradigm. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the illusion of a post-conflict Europe, while China’s assertive rise and perceived unreliability of the United States have exposed vulnerabilities in the existing order.
This disillusionment isn’t limited to France. Across Europe, leaders are grappling with the limitations of a rules-based international system that appears increasingly unable to address real-world threats. A 2023 Pew Research Center survey revealed declining trust in international institutions across many European countries, with a growing sentiment that national interests must take precedence.
From Philosophy to Steel: Macron’s Strategic Calculus
Macron’s shift wasn’t sudden. In July 2025, he articulated a core realist principle: “To be free in this world you must be feared. To be feared you must be powerful.” This echoes Machiavelli’s timeless insights, prioritizing security through strength. However, the carrier announcement transformed this philosophy into concrete action.
The choice of an aircraft carrier is particularly significant. These vessels represent not just military might, but also technological prowess and a sustained commitment to global reach. France’s decision isn’t about achieving hegemony, but about ensuring its own security in a world where predation is perceived as a dominant force. This aligns with a defensive realist approach, seeking sufficient power to deter aggression, rather than maximizing power for domination.
The Middle Power Balancing Act
France occupies a unique position. It’s too small to compete with superpowers like the US and China, yet too globally engaged to adopt a purely regional focus. Its overseas territories and economic interests span multiple continents, demanding a capacity for independent action. The aircraft carrier allows France to project power in key regions – the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific – without relying on the permission or basing rights of other nations.
This pursuit of “strategic autonomy” is gaining traction across Europe. Countries like Germany are increasing defense spending and exploring ways to enhance their military capabilities. However, France stands out for its willingness to translate this ambition into tangible assets, like the new carrier. Germany’s recent struggles to deliver promised military aid to Ukraine highlight the challenges of rapidly building up defense capabilities.
The Liberal-Realist Tension: A Tightrope Walk
The core challenge lies in reconciling realist foreign policy with liberal democratic values. Can France maintain its commitment to human rights, the rule of law, and internal freedoms while simultaneously adopting a more assertive, power-based approach to international relations?
The key, according to analysts like Deudney and Ikenberry (2021), is to direct coercion outward – deterring external threats – while preserving liberal constraints internally. However, this boundary is fragile. Democracies facing existential threats have historically been tempted to curtail civil liberties in the name of national security. The long-term impact of a forty-year commitment to power projection on French democratic norms remains to be seen.
Did you know? The French Navy currently operates the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, its only nuclear-powered carrier. The new carrier will significantly expand France’s ability to project power globally.
Transactional Alliances and the Future of Partnerships
France’s approach to alliances is also evolving. The relationship with the United Arab Emirates, exemplified by French intervention during Houthi attacks and the UAE’s subsequent purchase of Rafale fighter jets, demonstrates a transactional approach based on mutual security interests rather than shared values. This pragmatic approach may become more common as European nations prioritize tangible benefits over ideological alignment.
This shift could reshape European foreign policy, leading to more flexible and ad-hoc partnerships. However, it also raises concerns about the long-term stability of alliances and the potential for strategic miscalculations. The recent tensions within NATO over burden-sharing and strategic priorities underscore the challenges of maintaining unity in a changing geopolitical landscape.
The Temporal Lock: A Point of No Return?
The most significant aspect of Macron’s decision is the “temporal lock” it creates. By committing to a forty-year program, France has effectively bound future governments to a realist trajectory. Cancellation would be prohibitively expensive and politically damaging. This ensures that France will continue to project power globally for decades to come, regardless of changing political winds.
This long-term commitment has profound implications for European strategic culture. It embeds realist logic into the very fabric of French defense planning, shaping the mindset of future leaders and influencing strategic choices for generations.
FAQ: Navigating the New Realism
Q: Is France abandoning its commitment to European integration?
A: No. France remains committed to the EU and NATO, but is also pursuing strategic autonomy to ensure it can act independently when necessary.
Q: What are the potential risks of this realist turn?
A: The main risk is the erosion of liberal democratic norms and the potential for increased militarization of foreign policy.
Q: Will other European countries follow France’s lead?
A: Several countries are already reassessing their defense strategies, but France’s ability to translate rhetoric into concrete action sets it apart.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on defense spending trends in Europe. Increases in military budgets and investments in advanced weaponry are key indicators of this shift towards realism.
The era of predators, as Macron describes it, demands a reassessment of long-held assumptions about international relations. France’s bold move may well serve as a catalyst for a broader European awakening, forcing a reckoning with the realities of power and the enduring relevance of realist principles.
Explore further: Read our analysis of the future of NATO and the challenges facing European defense integration.
What are your thoughts on France’s strategic shift? Share your insights in the comments below!
