Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are scheduled to meet in the United Arab Emirates on Friday. This marks the first time representatives from all three countries will convene for talks since Russia launched its full-scale invasion nearly four years ago.
A Focus on Territorial Disputes
The Kremlin confirmed its participation following a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and US envoys in Moscow. Russian officials described the Moscow talks as “useful in every respect,” but emphasized that a lasting peace agreement hinges on resolving territorial issues. According to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, without addressing these issues “according to the formula agreed upon in Anchorage” – referencing a previous summit – “there is no hope of achieving a long-term settlement.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, also highlighted the centrality of land disputes. He stated, “It’s all about the land. This is the issue which is not solved yet,” and asserted that Russia must be willing to compromise. Specifically, Russia is demanding Ukraine cede control of 25% of the Donetsk region.
US Involvement and Potential Frameworks
The US has reportedly been working on a 20-point plan to end the war, said to be 90% complete. This plan proposes a demilitarised and free economic zone in Donbas, in exchange for security guarantees for Kyiv. Zelensky has suggested Ukraine could withdraw troops up to 40km (25 miles) from the region to facilitate the creation of such a zone, contingent on reciprocal action from Russia.
Zelensky also stated he reached an agreement with Trump regarding future US security guarantees for Ukraine, though details require approval from both the US Congress and the Ukrainian parliament. Steve Witkoff previously indicated Russia had agreed to allow security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a potential deal.
Delegation Details and Next Steps
The Ukrainian delegation to Abu Dhabi will be led by Rustem Umerov, head of the country’s national security and defence council, and will include Kyrylo Budanov, Andrii Hnatov, and David Arakhamia. The Russian delegation will be headed by General Igor Kostyukov, director of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency. Kirill Dmitriev will meet separately with Witkoff to discuss economic matters.
It is possible the talks in Abu Dhabi will serve as a platform for further bilateral discussions between the US and Russia, and between the US and Ukraine. A breakthrough is not guaranteed, and the meeting could simply establish a framework for continued negotiations. Alternatively, a failure to make progress could signal a prolonged continuation of the conflict. The outcome will likely depend on the willingness of all parties to address the fundamental issue of territorial control.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary obstacle to a peace deal, according to Russia?
Russia states that a long-term peace deal cannot be reached until territorial issues are resolved, specifically referencing a “formula agreed upon in Anchorage.”
Who is leading the Ukrainian delegation to the talks in Abu Dhabi?
Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, is leading the Ukrainian delegation.
What is the US proposing for the Donbas region?
The US proposal is for a demilitarised and free economic zone in Donbas in exchange for security guarantees for Kyiv.
Given the complexities of the situation, what role do you believe international mediation can play in facilitating a peaceful resolution to the conflict?
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