California is experiencing a decline in homicides, a trend Governor Gavin Newsom has highlighted while contrasting the state’s rates with those of other states. This decrease follows a significant spike during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Recent Declines and Political Context
For the second consecutive year, Governor Newsom has pointed to falling homicide rates in California, using the data to publicly compare the state’s performance with others. He stated on social media that a Missouri congressman’s state had a homicide rate 117% higher than California’s, and that Arkansas’ rate was double California’s.
The decline is evident across several California cities. Oakland recorded 67 homicides in 2025, the lowest number since 1967, down from 134 in 2021. Los Angeles saw an 18% drop in homicides, with 230 reported in 2025. Similar decreases were observed in San Francisco, Fresno, Richmond, and Lodi.
Complex Factors at Play
While the trend is clear, the reasons behind the decline are described by researchers as “multifactorial.” The initial surge in homicides in 2020, with a 31% increase to 5.5 homicides per 100,000 people, and a further rise in 2021 to 6 per 100,000, may have been linked to disruptions caused by the pandemic. These included school closures, job losses, and the suspension of community-based violence prevention programs.
Following the 2020 peak, homicide rates began to fall: 7% in 2022, 14% in 2023, and 12% in 2024, bringing the rate down to 4.3 per 100,000 people. Simultaneously, the percentage of homicide cases cleared by police departments—meaning an arrest was made—increased from a low of 54.6% in 2021 to over 64% in 2024.
National Trends and Data Caveats
The decline in homicides is not unique to California. A report from the Council on Criminal Justice found that homicides dropped by 21% among 35 major U.S. cities between 2024 and 2025. The national homicide rate could reach a record low of 4 per 100,000 people when the FBI releases its data later this year.
However, the accuracy of these figures is complicated by inconsistencies in how crime data is collected and reported by law enforcement agencies. Not all departments participate in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, and those that do may use different reporting methods. The California Department of Justice provides data annually in June, and declined to provide updated numbers beyond 2024.
The decline in homicide rates has not been uniform across all areas of California. Orange, Ventura, and Kern counties did not experience the same pandemic-era spike, and Kern County continues to have the state’s highest homicide rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the initial spike in homicides in 2020 and 2021?
Researchers suggest the spike may have been the result of disruptions in government activities and social services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, including school closures and job losses.
Has the decline in homicides been consistent across all of California?
No, the decline has not been uniform. Some counties, like Orange, Ventura, and Kern, did not experience the same significant spike during the pandemic, and Kern County continues to have the highest homicide rate in the state.
What is a police department’s “clearance rate”?
A police department’s “clearance rate” is the percentage of crimes reported that result in an arrest. The statewide homicide clearance rate dropped during the pandemic but has since risen back to over 64%.
Given the complex factors influencing crime rates, and the ongoing challenges in data collection, what further steps might cities and states take to sustain these downward trends and address the underlying causes of violence?