The United States government is increasing pressure on Cuba with new restrictions on oil supplies, following a disruption in shipments from Venezuela. A recently signed executive order declares a “national emergency” regarding Cuba and announces tariffs on countries providing petroleum to the island. This action could impact Mexico’s ability to continue supplying Cuba with oil.
Justification for New Measures
According to the executive order, “the policies, practices, and actions of the Government of Cuba are designed to harm the United States and support hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors seeking to destroy the United States.” The order asserts that the situation with Cuba presents an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy.
To address this declared threat, the order establishes a tariff system targeting products from foreign countries that provide oil to Cuba “directly or indirectly.”
Mexico’s Role in Cuban Oil Supply
Mexico has become Cuba’s primary crude oil supplier since the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, reports Sonia Corona from Mexico. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that oil shipments to Cuba consist of both humanitarian aid and contracts between Pemex, the state-owned oil company, and the Cuban government. Regular shipments from the Gulf of Mexico to Cuba continued until mid-January, when Pemex suspended tanker deliveries to Havana.
President Sheinbaum has maintained that humanitarian aid in hydrocarbons will continue and, following a call with President Trump this Thursday, denied that the issue was discussed. Pemex reported in December that it exported 17,200 barrels of crude oil per day to Cuba during the first nine months of 2025, representing 3.3% of its total exports.
Current Oil Reserves and Supply Chain
A Financial Times calculation indicates that Cuba has enough oil for the next 15 to 20 days. Prior to U.S. intervention, Venezuela supplied an average of 46,500 barrels daily to the island. Mexico had been delivering an average of 17,200 barrels per day, but those shipments ceased in early January, shortly after the U.S. operation in Caracas. Russia and Algeria are also suppliers, with their last shipments occurring in October and February, respectively.
Following the capture of Maduro and Flores, President Trump has adopted increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward the Cuban government, predicting its imminent collapse. He stated this Tuesday, before traveling to Iowa, that the island “is a nation on the verge of collapse.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated Wednesday that Washington is not directly attempting to force a regime change in Havana, stating, “We would like to, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to provoke a change, although we would love to see it. There’s no question it would be a great benefit to the United States if Cuba were no longer governed by an autocratic regime.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the new U.S. policy toward Cuba?
The U.S. government cites concerns that Cuban government policies and actions harm the United States and support entities considered hostile, leading to the declaration of a “national emergency.”
What role is Mexico playing in the oil supply to Cuba?
Mexico became Cuba’s main crude oil supplier after the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, exporting an average of 17,200 barrels per day until shipments were suspended by Pemex in early January.
How long can Cuba’s current oil reserves last?
According to a Financial Times calculation, Cuba has enough oil to last for approximately 15 to 20 days.
Given these new restrictions, what impact might this have on Cuba’s economic and political stability in the coming weeks and months?
