The Republican Party continues to face challenging political headwinds ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. A recent special election result in Texas, however, stands out even amidst a string of what some are calling “panic-inspiring” outcomes for the GOP.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet secured an upset victory in a Fort Worth-area state Senate district, defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a margin of 57% to 43% in a runoff election. This win is particularly notable as the district is considered solidly Republican.
Expert Insight:
Democrats have been overperforming in special elections since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election, but the Texas result represents one of the largest swings to date. While Trump won this district by approximately 17 points in 2024, Rehmet secured a 14-point lead as of Sunday, representing a 31-point shift. This margin surpasses recent Democratic overperformances in other congressional races, which typically fell in the high teens and low 20s.
This victory also marks the first time a Democrat will represent the northern part of Tarrant County in the state Senate since the early 1980s, according to local political journalist Bud Kennedy.
The 9th District in the Texas state Senate is larger than a typical US congressional district, encompassing nearly 1 million residents compared to the roughly 800,000 found in an average congressional district. There are 31 state Senate districts in Texas, compared to 38 congressional districts.
Did You Know?
The race drew significant attention, attracting involvement from both national committees, top statewide Republicans, and even former President Trump, who posted three times about the race on his social media platform in recent days. Despite this effort, Rehmet outperformed expectations, even improving his vote share on Election Day compared to early voting – winning 58% to 42% on Election Day after winning early voting 56-44.
Wambsganss significantly outraised Rehmet, accumulating over $2.5 million in campaign funds compared to Rehmet’s less than $400,000.
Tarrant County is considered a key bellwether county, both in Texas and nationally. It’s a region with a complex political history, having been a stronghold for both defense contractors and conservative activism, but is becoming increasingly competitive in recent years.
This upset could embolden Democrats, potentially fueling hopes of winning a US Senate race in Texas this year. However, Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas since the 1990s, and their success may hinge on the outcome of the primary elections, particularly if state Attorney General Ken Paxton emerges as the GOP nominee, as he is generally considered a more vulnerable candidate than current Senator John Cornyn.
It’s important to note that special elections don’t always accurately predict the results of regularly scheduled elections. Trump’s base voters may be less likely to participate in lower-profile races. This particular election also saw low turnout, likely influenced by the unusual Saturday voting date and unseasonably cold weather. Fewer than 100,000 votes were cast, compared to around 180,000 in a recent special congressional election in Tennessee.
However, Rehmet also significantly outperformed his usual Democratic vote share in the primary election, which had higher turnout and saw him capture 48% of the vote.
Local political dynamics may also have played a role. Wambsganss’s involvement in a conservative push to gain control of local school boards may have alienated moderate voters and even some Republicans, potentially contributing to Rehmet’s success.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final vote count in the Texas State Senate special election?
Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57% to 43%.
How did Donald Trump attempt to influence the election?
Donald Trump posted three times about the race on his social media platform in recent days, hoping to boost Republican turnout.
Is Tarrant County considered a politically important area?
Yes, Tarrant County is generally considered a major bellwether county, not just in Texas but nationally.
Given these results, what factors might influence the outcome of the upcoming regularly scheduled elections in Texas?
