Mexico City is once again a central location for discussions regarding the future of Cuba and its government, echoing the dynamics of the Cold War era. According to confirmations from sources within the government of Claudia Sheinbaum, Colonel Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro and nephew of Fidel Castro, is currently engaged in a series of negotiations with U.S. intelligence agents in the Mexican capital.
The stated aim of these discussions is to reach an agreement on a transition of power in Cuba that would lead to the end of Castro-led rule. Initial exchanges have focused on the potential lifting of the U.S. economic blockade against Cuba, with the possibility of the White House easing restrictions in exchange for allowing U.S. companies access to key sectors of the Cuban economy, including energy, tourism, banking, and telecommunications.
This potential shift aligns with recent discussions within the Cuban Communist Party, which, particularly since late 2025, have indicated a need for a more decentralized economy. The possibility of lifting the embargo in exchange for economic concessions was previously explored during the Obama administration’s “thaw” with Cuba in March 2016.
A first sign of a broader agreement between Havana and Washington, according to Mexican officials, could be the U.S. selling Cuba the oil it needs to survive – currently between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day. However, these negotiations are occurring under pressure, as the U.S. has reportedly threatened to consider Cuba an accomplice to Nicolás Maduro, currently detained in New York on narcoterrorism charges, potentially triggering a military escalation similar to that seen in Caracas.
The Facilitator
Efraín Guadarrama, a security official in the Mexican Foreign Ministry, is facilitating these conversations. Guadarrama, who served in the previous administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, maintains relationships with the governments of China, Venezuela, and Cuba. He attends a daily security briefing at the National Palace with President Sheinbaum. He also works closely with Roberto Velasco, Undersecretary for North America, who has a direct line to Christopher Landau, Under Secretary of State for Marco Rubio.
Lázaro Cárdenas Batel, President Sheinbaum’s chief of staff, is also closely monitoring the negotiations. His family has strong ties to Cuba; his father, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, was a prominent figure in the Mexican left and a personal friend of both Fidel and Raúl Castro, as well as current President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The situation is further complicated by Donald Trump’s assertion that the Castro regime is nearing its end and that conversations are underway for Cuba to “become free.” The Mexican government has been attempting to support the Cuban regime with oil shipments, framing it as humanitarian aid, but the U.S. State Department has warned that continued support could result in commercial sanctions against Mexico.
The future of Cuba appears to rest, in part, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also a key ally for Mexico within the Trump administration. Rubio has not publicly supported Trump’s proposals for military intervention in Mexico to combat organized crime. Sources indicate Sheinbaum has ceased questioning Maduro’s capture at Rubio’s request.
The Role of Marco Rubio
Rubio also plays a crucial role in the renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement, a cornerstone of the Mexican economy, which is scheduled for review this year. The level of interaction between the Mexican government and the State Department highlights Mexico’s role as a potential mediator for Cuba’s future, a point raised by Mexican Foreign Minister Juan Ramón De la Fuente in a recent meeting with ruling party senators.
Mexico’s strategy appears to be a calculated one: supporting Rubio on Cuba in exchange for safeguarding Mexico from more hawkish elements surrounding President Trump who advocate for military intervention south of the border.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary goal of the negotiations taking place in Mexico City?
The primary goal is to reach an agreement on a transition of power in Cuba that would lead to the end of Castro-led rule.
What is the U.S. reportedly offering in exchange for concessions from the Cuban regime?
The U.S. is reportedly considering lifting the economic blockade against Cuba in exchange for allowing U.S. companies access to key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as energy, tourism, banking, and telecommunications.
What potential pressure is the U.S. applying during these negotiations?
The U.S. has reportedly threatened to consider Cuba an accomplice to Nicolás Maduro and potentially trigger a military escalation, similar to the one in Caracas.
Given the complex interplay of political interests and potential consequences, what role might Mexico continue to play in shaping the future of Cuba?
