The legal battle between states and prediction markets is intensifying, with Nevada taking a firm stance against platforms offering event-based contracts. A temporary restraining order has been issued against Polymarket, blocking the company from offering sports prediction contracts within the state, including those related to this weekend’s Super Bowl LX.
Nevada Cracks Down on Prediction Markets
On January 29, District Judge Jason Woodbury agreed with the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s request for a temporary restraining order against Blockratize, the platform provider for Polymarket. The Board filed a civil enforcement case on January 16, arguing that Polymarket offers contracts related to sporting events, college games, and even elections without a license to do so in Nevada. Polymarket has not responded to requests for comment.
This action is part of a broader effort by Nevada to regulate prediction markets, which operate differently than traditional sports betting. These markets, overseen by a federal commodity-focused regulatory panel, allow users to wager on the outcomes of various events – from sports and entertainment to politics and finance – through “yes” and “no” contracts. Nevada has also filed lawsuits against Coinbase, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, and issued cease-and-desist letters to these companies.
A federal judge already ordered Kalshi to halt sports contracts in Nevada last November, a decision currently under appeal. Robinhood has also agreed to suspend sports event contracts in the state while legal proceedings continue. Florida-based gaming attorney Daniel Wallach has advised states to proactively sue these platforms, arguing that cease-and-desist letters provide an unfair advantage.
Vegas Tourism and Future Outlook
The legal battles come as Las Vegas assesses its economic performance. MGM Resorts International CEO Bill Hornbuckle recently stated, “Vegas is not dead,” despite a challenging 2025 that saw flat gaming revenue ($8.8 billion), a 7.5 percent drop in visitation, and declines in airline passenger volume and hotel occupancy. Hornbuckle cited a record number of booked conventions and conferences as a positive sign for the future.
Boyd Gaming CEO Keith Smith reflected on a past strategic decision, recalling how halting the Echelon project in 2008, despite a $1 billion investment, ultimately saved the company during the Great Recession.
What’s Next?
The legal challenges are likely to continue as prediction markets seek to expand their reach. It is possible that other states will follow Nevada’s lead and pursue similar legal action. The courts will ultimately determine the legality of these platforms and their ability to operate within existing state and federal regulations. The American Gaming Association has also raised concerns that prediction markets may mislead consumers by presenting betting as an investment rather than entertainment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets allow people to wager on the outcomes of events – ranging from sports and entertainment to politics and finance – in the form of “yes” and “no” contracts. They are overseen by a federal commodity-focused regulatory panel.
Why is Nevada taking action against Polymarket?
Nevada argues that Polymarket is offering sports betting contracts without a license to do so within the state, violating state law. A temporary restraining order has been issued to block Polymarket from offering these contracts, including those related to the Super Bowl.
What was the outcome of the case against Kalshi?
In November, a federal judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports contracts in Nevada, siding with gaming regulators. That decision is currently being appealed.
As the landscape of sports wagering continues to evolve, will states find a way to balance innovation with consumer protection and established gaming regulations?
