The Conclude of New START: A New Era of Nuclear Strategy?
The New START treaty, limiting US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons, officially expired on February 5, 2026, ushering in a period of uncertainty and potential escalation in the global nuclear landscape. The Trump administration has publicly proposed new nuclear arms control negotiations involving the US, Russia, and China, signaling a significant shift in approach.
The Breakdown of US-Russia Nuclear Dialogue
For years, New START, implemented in 2011, provided a framework for limiting the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers. But, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, trust between the two nations deteriorated, rendering the treaty increasingly unstable. The US asserts Russia has not fully complied with the treaty’s provisions.
The Rise of China as a Nuclear Factor
A key driver behind the US call for new negotiations is the growing nuclear capability of China. The administration argues that any future arms control agreement must account for China’s arsenal, reflecting a move towards a “two-peer” nuclear strategy – preparing for potential conflict with both Russia and China. This contrasts with the previous bilateral focus of treaties like New START.
Accusations of Non-Compliance and Nuclear Development
The US has accused China of conducting nuclear explosion experiments, allegedly attempting to conceal these activities to avoid violating its commitments to a nuclear test ban. Specifically, it’s claimed that experiments occurred on June 22, 2020, utilizing “decoupling” technology to mask seismic signatures. The US alleges Russia is developing non-New START limited tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear-powered cruise missiles, and nuclear torpedoes, and has aligned itself with North Korea’s nuclear program.
Implications for US Nuclear Deterrence
With the expiration of New START, the US believes it can now strengthen its nuclear deterrence without the constraints of the treaty. The administration contends that the previous arms control framework hindered its ability to maintain a credible deterrent and provide extended deterrence to its allies. This suggests a potential increase in US nuclear modernization and development efforts.
What Does This Mean for Global Security?
The collapse of New START and the push for a trilateral agreement present significant challenges to global security. Bringing China to the negotiating table will be a major hurdle, as China has historically resisted multilateral arms control talks.
The Challenge of Verification
A major concern is verification. The US has expressed skepticism about Russia’s adherence to previous arms control agreements, citing at least nine violations since Putin assumed the presidency. Without robust verification mechanisms, any new agreement risks being ineffective.
The Potential for an Arms Race
The absence of limits could lead to a renewed arms race, as each nation seeks to maintain a strategic advantage. This could increase instability and the risk of miscalculation, particularly in a world already grappling with geopolitical tensions.
FAQ
What was New START? New START was a treaty between the US and Russia limiting strategic nuclear weapons.
Why did New START expire? The treaty officially expired on February 5, 2026, due to a breakdown in trust between the US and Russia and the US desire to include China in arms control talks.
What is the US proposing now? The US is proposing a new trilateral nuclear arms control agreement involving the US, Russia, and China.
What are the concerns about China’s nuclear program? The US alleges China is conducting nuclear explosion experiments and expanding its nuclear arsenal without transparency.
Pro Tip
Stay informed about developments in nuclear arms control by following reputable sources like the US State Department and the Atlantic Council. Understanding the nuances of these negotiations is crucial for assessing global security risks.
Did you know? The New START treaty limited each nation’s strategic nuclear forces to 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles, 800 deployed and non-deployed strategic nuclear delivery vehicles, and 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear warheads.
Want to learn more about the evolving landscape of international security? Explore our other articles on global conflict and defense policy.
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