Recent attacks across Balochistan have raised concerns about a new, more coordinated, and ambitious insurgent strategy employed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Dubbed “Operation Herof (Black Storm) 2.0,” this offensive has implications for Pakistan’s security, regional projects, foreign investment, and the province’s stability.
A Shift in Tactics
The BLA has been a major militant threat in Balochistan, responsible for attacks including suicide bombings—some carried out by female attackers—ambushes, IED attacks, and targeted assassinations. The group has consistently targeted Chinese nationals and projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Balochistan and Sindh provinces.
Since August 2024, the BLA has launched simultaneous attacks on multiple locations, focusing on urban areas in an apparent attempt to overwhelm security forces. Last week’s attacks suggest militants infiltrated urban centers prior to the operations, utilizing a tactic previously announced with the formation of the BLA’s intelligence wing, Zirab.
Parallels to Afghanistan
The BLA’s infiltration tactics echo those reportedly used by the Haqqani Network during the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. While the tactic wasn’t fully utilized in Kabul due to President Ghani’s flight, the BLA’s approach may inspire similar strategies by the Pakistani Taliban.
Security forces have reportedly neutralized over 100 BLA militants involved in the January 31 attacks in Balochistan, while sustaining a loss of 10 personnel. However, a guerrilla force’s success relies on a significantly weakened conventional enemy.
Propaganda and Recruitment
Beyond battlefield outcomes, the BLA’s attacks serve a crucial purpose: propaganda and recruitment. The attacks have garnered media attention and dominated social media, potentially attracting and inspiring youth to join the “liberation movement.”
A Dual Threat and Shifting Strategies
Pakistan currently faces security threats from both the Taliban in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Baloch armed separatists in Balochistan. A pattern has emerged where activity shifts between the two regions, potentially indicating coordination against a common enemy.
Attacks have occurred within 100 meters of key government buildings in Quetta, suggesting a level of preparation and intelligence gathering that raises concerns about security arrangements. The Pakistani state’s inconsistent strategy for tackling terrorism, often shifting with changes in leadership, complicates the issue.
Containment vs. Elimination
A dual approach is needed in Balochistan: integrating the province into the national mainstream by granting political rights, and applying a robust security approach to contain escalating violence. Containment, rather than total elimination, is considered more practical and sustainable given the complexity and potential for unintended consequences.
Pursuing total elimination risks collateral damage, human rights abuses, and further alienation, potentially fueling militant propaganda and recruitment.
The Importance of Perception
Beyond military outcomes, perception is crucial. The state should aim to dismantle the BLA and BLF’s perceived invincibility to deter youth from joining the groups. Passive support—online discussions and ideological alignment—is as important as active recruitment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is “Operation Herof (Black Storm) 2.0”?
“Operation Herof (Black Storm) 2.0” is the name the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has given to its latest wave of attacks across Balochistan.
What tactics is the BLA employing?
The BLA is launching simultaneous attacks on multiple targets in urban areas, and has reportedly infiltrated urban centers prior to attacks.
What is the current state of security forces’ response?
As of the time of writing, security forces have neutralized over 100 BLA militants involved in the January 31 attacks in Balochistan, while suffering a loss of 10 personnel.
Given the complex dynamics at play, what steps might be most effective in de-escalating the conflict and fostering long-term stability in Balochistan?
