The Cracks in “America First”: How Trump’s Policies Risk Alienating His Heartland Base
As Donald Trump’s presidency continues, a growing disconnect is emerging between the rhetoric of “America First” and the realities faced by the rural and small-town voters who were instrumental in his past electoral successes. What began as a populist surge against globalization is now showing signs of fracturing its core support, potentially impacting upcoming elections.
The Rural Squeeze: Immigration and the Labor Shortage
Trump’s intensified immigration enforcement, while fulfilling campaign promises, is creating significant economic hardship in agricultural communities. Increased ICE raids, intended to target undocumented workers with criminal records, have inadvertently swept up essential laborers vital to farms and businesses in states like California, Idaho, and Pennsylvania. This has led to a reported drop of 155,000 agricultural workers between March and July 2025, reversing previous growth.
Farmers are struggling to discover replacements, as low wages and demanding conditions deter American-born workers. The H-2A visa program, designed to address temporary labor needs, remains insufficient amidst ongoing raids, even discouraging legal migration. This disruption extends beyond the fields, impacting the economic stability of entire small towns reliant on agriculture.
Tariffs and the Rising Cost of Doing Business
The administration’s tariffs, touted as a means to “make America great,” are ironically increasing costs for the very rural communities they aim to protect. Between January and September 2025, tariffs collected approximately US$125 billion, but the burden falls on American importers and consumers. Small businesses, accounting for around 30% of imports, experienced an average of US$151,000 in extra costs between April and September 2025 – roughly $25,000 per month.
Farmers, already facing low grain prices, are paying more for essential inputs like fertilizers (subject to a 44% tariff on Indian imports) and machinery parts. Midwest producers of soybeans, corn, and pork are particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs abroad, reducing demand and depressing revenues. Builders in Tennessee and Pennsylvania have reported a 2.5% increase in material costs, and food prices are climbing due to duties on items like beef, tomatoes, and coffee.
Foreign Policy Disconnect: From Non-Interventionism to Renewed Assertiveness
The contradictions extend to foreign policy. Having promised “no new wars,” Trump has pursued increasingly assertive actions that diverge from his campaign pledge of restraint. His renewed pursuit of acquiring Greenland, coupled with a raid on Venezuela and threats against other Latin American nations, have drawn criticism even from within his own party.
Congressional Republicans, including Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis, have voiced concerns that aggressive foreign policy could damage alliances and tarnish US influence. This shift away from non-interventionism clashes with the expectations of rural voters who supported Trump’s initial promises.
The Erosion of Trust and the Democratic Opportunity
These domestic and foreign policy inconsistencies are fueling a sense of betrayal among Trump’s base. Polls indicate a decline in his approval ratings in key swing counties, with economic anxiety eroding the loyalty that previously overlooked his character flaws. Democrats are capitalizing on this discontent, investing in rural outreach and emphasizing economic populism to woo disillusioned voters.
The Rural Urban Bridge Initiative and similar programs are actively highlighting the struggles of farmers and rural communities, aiming to flip seats in the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections. Polls also show Latinos and independents souring on Trump, with potential waning turnout among his traditional supporters.
FAQ
Q: What is the “America First” policy?
A: It’s a set of policies prioritizing U.S. Interests over other nations in both foreign and domestic affairs.
Q: How are tariffs impacting farmers?
A: Tariffs are increasing the cost of essential inputs like fertilizers and machinery parts, while retaliatory tariffs are reducing demand for U.S. Agricultural exports.
Q: What is the H-2A visa program?
A: It’s a program designed to provide temporary foreign workers for agricultural jobs, but it’s currently insufficient to meet the needs of farmers facing labor shortages.
Q: What is the Monroe Doctrine?
A: A U.S. Foreign policy regarding European colonization of the Americas. Trump has invoked an updated version of it.
Did you know? The US president signed an Executive Order establishing the America First Arms Transfer Strategy in February 2026, aiming to bolster the American industrial base.
If Republicans experience significant losses in the midterm elections, it could signal a decline in the influence of Trumpism and expose the disconnect between its populist rhetoric and its impact on rural America. The future of this political movement may be determined not in Washington, but in the county seats and small towns that once formed its foundation.
