Latvian Timber Exports to the US Face Headwinds: A Shift in Global Trade
Latvian timber industry representatives experienced a challenging end to 2025 in the US market. Recent data indicates a sharp decline in export volumes to the country in December 2025.
The Impact of Tariffs and US Construction Slowdown
The primary drivers of this change are the newly implemented US tariffs and weaker activity in the American construction sector. While the impact varies across product segments, the overall trend points to a significant market realignment.
Compared to December 2024, Latvia’s total exports to the US decreased by nearly half – 44%, equating to €27.9 million. The most substantial decline came from the reduced sales of wood and wood products, falling by over 86%. For the entirety of 2025, Latvian timber exports to the US totaled €105 million, a decrease of €43 million compared to the previous year.
Why US Buyers are Choosing Less Latvian Timber
The core reason for the export decline is the US-imposed tariffs. In September 2025, President Donald Trump announced new duties of 10-15% specifically on timber products. This move aimed to protect American domestic producers, making it more difficult for Latvian and other European companies to compete on price.
Compounding the tariff issue is a slowdown in the US construction industry. Reduced housing starts directly translate to lower demand for imported timber. Producers of wood-based panels, particularly OSB, have been particularly affected. However, some segments, like softwood lumber, saw a slight increase in exports, indicating niche opportunities remain.
Seeking New Paths in Europe and Beyond
The Latvian Timber Industry Federation acknowledges a global reshaping of trade routes. Companies previously reliant on the US market are actively exploring alternative opportunities. Europe remains the primary and most stable partner for Latvian timber, serving as a buffer against instability in more distant markets.
Volatility as a Recurring Pattern
Historically, exports to the US have been inconsistent. For example, 2025 saw a strong May followed by a significant drop in August, with only a slight recovery in the autumn. The final two months of the year brought renewed disappointment.
Similar fluctuations occurred in 2021 and 2023. However, the current situation differs due to the political decision to impose tariffs, creating a persistent barrier that cannot be overcome through improved marketing or efficiency.
Navigating the New Reality
Latvian timber companies must now adapt to a new reality where the US market is becoming exclusive and difficult to access. The industry is currently in a waiting period, seeking a new level of stability to understand how to operate in an environment of increasingly unpredictable geopolitical decisions.
FAQ
Q: What is the main reason for the decline in Latvian timber exports to the US?
A: The primary reason is the imposition of new tariffs by the US government on timber products.
Q: Is the entire timber sector affected equally?
A: No, some segments like softwood lumber have seen slight increases in exports, while others, like OSB, have been more heavily impacted.
Q: What is Latvia doing to mitigate the impact of these changes?
A: Latvian companies are actively seeking new markets, particularly within Europe, and the Latvian Timber Industry Federation is monitoring the situation closely.
Q: Has the US market always been volatile for Latvian timber exports?
A: Yes, fluctuations in US demand have been observed in the past, but the recent tariffs have created a more persistent challenge.
Did you know? The Latvian timber industry is a significant contributor to the national economy, and the US was previously a key export destination.
Pro Tip: Diversifying export markets is crucial for mitigating risk in the face of geopolitical changes and trade barriers.
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