From a Midnight Raid to a Hemisphere‑Wide Power Shift
January 3, 2026 – Caracas – Low‑flying helicopters, Delta Force operators, and a real‑time briefing at Mar‑a‑Lago marked the climax of a U.S. Operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The raid, which left 32 Cuban bodyguards dead, was presented as a “narco‑terrorism” mission, but the article argues it was the latest chapter of a 60‑year geopolitical contest against the Castro regime.
Why Cuba Became the “Brain” Behind a Hemisphere‑Wide Revolution
Since the Tricontinental Congress of 1966, Havana has pursued the “revolutionary transformation of the entire Western Hemisphere.” The Venceremos Brigade, founded in 1969, sent roughly 10,000 American youths to perform on Cuban sugarcane. A 1976 FBI report linked the brigade to “inculcated revolutionary fervor” and occasional weapons training—connections that later surfaced in the domestic terrorist Weather Underground.
Key figures such as Bernardine Dohrn, Bill Ayers and future Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass participated in Venceremos trips, illustrating how Cuban outreach seeped into mainstream U.S. Politics.
Havana’s Asylum Network: From Assata Shakur to “80 American Fugitives”
After her 1979 prison escape, Assata Shakur lived in Havana until her death in September 2025, becoming the first woman on the FBI’s “Most Wanted Terrorists” list. Cuban officials openly admitted that granting asylum to individuals “who annoyed the United States” served their strategic goals. Over the decades, Cuba sheltered roughly 80 American fugitives, ranging from hijackers to members of the Black Liberation Army.
Venezuela: The Oil‑Powered Bridgehead
When Soviet subsidies waned, Fidel Castro turned to Venezuela’s oil to fund the revolutionary agenda. Cuban operatives, led by Douglas Bravo, cultivated military cells and helped launch Hugo Chávez’s 1992 coup attempt. Even as the coup failed, the episode revealed deep infiltration within the Venezuelan armed forces.
Chávez’s 1998 election victory enabled the implementation of the Foro de São Paulo playbook: abolish the judiciary, eliminate term limits, replace the legislature with a Constituent Assembly, and divert PDVSA revenues to Havana (eventually >90,000 bbl/day). The oil‑money stream financed leftist parties across Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and beyond.
The Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis
Chávez’s expropriations of steel, cement, telecommunications and agriculture, coupled with the firing of 18,000 PDVSA engineers, triggered a production decline that spiraled into hyperinflation—over 130,000 % annually by 2018. By 2022, more than 60 % of transactions were conducted in U.S. Dollars, while food scarcity reached 80 % and the “Maduro Diet” became a grim reality.
State‑run “CLAP” food boxes, military‑controlled health ministries, and the Special Action Forces (FAES) contributed to a wave of extrajudicial killings—over 5,287 deaths in 2018 alone (UN data). The crisis prompted a mass exodus: nearly 8 million Venezuelans fled by 2025, reshaping migration patterns throughout the Americas.
From Guerrilla Roots to Presidential Seats: Colombia, Brazil and Beyond
The M‑19 guerrilla movement, once funded by Pablo Escobar, transitioned into a political party that eventually propelled Gustavo Petro to the Colombian presidency in 2022. In 2025, the U.S. Treasury designated Petro and his family as “Foreign Narcotics Kingpins,” mirroring the legal framework used against Maduro.
Brazil’s Operation Car Wash exposed a $788 million bribery network linking Odebrecht to leaders across the continent, including Chávez. The scandal toppled the Workers’ Party, ushered Jair Bolsonaro to power in 2018, and highlighted the fragility of the leftist financing model.
Right‑Wing Resurgence and the New Hemispheric Alignment
Since 2020, a wave of right‑leaning leaders—Nayib Bukele (El Salvador), Javier Milei (Argentina), Daniel Noboa (Ecuador), Rodrigo Paz (Bolivia), José Antonio Kast (Chile)—have won elections by promising security, fiscal discipline, and a break from “failed” socialist policies. Their victories have been bolstered by explicit U.S. Support, as highlighted by Marco Rubio’s remarks that “What we have is our hemisphere” following the Maduro capture.
Analysts note that the right’s success hinges on a clear contrast with the “anarcho‑tyranny” of the previous leftist regimes, while also adopting a coordinated regional strategy reminiscent of the old Foro of São Paulo—now rebranded as the Grupo de Puebla.
What Lies Ahead? Potential Future Trends
- Decline of Cuban influence: With Venezuela’s oil lifeline disrupted, Havana’s capacity to fund intelligence networks across the hemisphere may wane.
- Continued U.S. Military and diplomatic pressure: The Maduro operation signals a willingness to conduct high‑risk raids, suggesting future interventions in hotspots where Cuban‑backed actors operate.
- Consolidation of right‑wing governments: The recent string of conservative victories could create a new “Monroe Doctrine 2.0,” aligning economic aid and security guarantees with anti‑socialist policies.
- Electoral technology scrutiny: The Smartmatic origin story underscores growing concerns about electronic voting systems, likely prompting tighter international oversight.
- Migration management challenges: The Venezuelan exodus will keep shaping labor markets, social services, and political discourse in host countries like Colombia, Peru and Brazil.
FAQ
- What was the official justification for the January 3, 2026 operation?
- U.S. Officials framed it as a “narco‑terrorism” mission targeting drug‑trafficking and weapons offenses linked to Maduro and Flores.
- How many Cuban operatives died during the raid?
- Thirty‑two Cuban bodyguards were reported dead in the compound.
- Which U.S. Political figures have historical ties to the Venceremos Brigade?
- Bernardine Dohrn, Bill Ayers, and former Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass all participated in Brigade trips.
- What role did Venezuela’s oil play in supporting Cuba?
- Venezuela supplied up to 90,000 barrels per day to Havana, financing Cuban intelligence and social programs.
- Has the U.S. Designated any Latin American leaders as drug kingpins?
- Yes. In 2025 the U.S. Treasury labeled Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his family as “Foreign Narcotics Kingpins,” using the same legal framework applied to Maduro.
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