Economist Emilio Morales, vice president of the suppose tank Cuba Siglo 21, believes the Cuban regime is in its final phase and has predicted its downfall.
In an interview with CubaNet, the analyst stated, “I don’t think it will reach summer,” and further asserted, “We are in the final stage of the regime.”
These statements come amid a visibly worsening crisis on the island, following the official announcement of a “contingency plan” in response to a severe fuel shortage. The plan includes cuts across all productive sectors, partial paralysis of services, and increased restrictions for the population.
A Paralyzed Country
Morales’s diagnosis of the situation is stark, both economically and structurally. He explained that Cuba is facing “the collapse of the energy matrix,” the deterioration of the health system, the collapse of transportation, and the paralysis of the productive sector.
“A country without power cannot produce and much less can it export. It cannot generate income. So, the economy is bankrupt. The country is practically paralyzed,” he argued.
Recent reports indicate ATMs without cash, restricted fuel sales, limitations in medical services, and cancellations of international flights due to a lack of fuel for airplanes.
The energy crisis has even impacted tourism, one of the few sectors still contributing foreign currency.
Morales recalled that the company Kpler estimated in early February that Cuba had only 15 to 20 days of oil reserves for consumption and electricity generation.
He believes the government has minimal room for maneuver.
“Tourism has just collapsed,” he noted, mentioning that several airlines have suspended operations to the island and that the main Canadian airline announced it will not fly to Cuba until May. Canada is the largest source of tourists to the country.
Health Crisis and Social Weariness
The economist added an epidemiological component to his analysis, stating that from an epidemiological standpoint, “it is a disaster, as there are more than nine viruses circulating.”
However, beyond economic and health indicators, Morales believes the regime has lost something that sustained its control for decades: informational hegemony and the ability to shape public discourse.
“The Cuban population is completely dissident,” he stated.
According to Morales, Cubans have stopped consuming official media and are now getting information from independent sources.
“That hegemonic narrative that the Communist Party of Cuba had over Cubans is over. They lost that war already. It is a great weakness right now for the Cuban government,” he asserted.
He believes this weariness is not only social but also ideological and institutional.
“This has also led the PCC to lose its ideological power over the population and its capacity for mobilization. And that fissure is also observed within the Armed Forces themselves,” he indicated.
Unpayable Debt and External Isolation
Internationally, Morales emphasizes the weight of the external debt and the loss of political influence in Latin America, with the fall of several left-wing governments and the rise of administrations less aligned with the Cuban regime.
He also points to a radical shift in U.S. Foreign policy, which has turn into tougher towards authoritarian governments in the hemisphere.
According to his interpretation, the Cuban government lacks bargaining chips and its options are “scarce.”
“What does the Cuban government have to offer in a negotiation? Absolutely nothing. The only thing it has to offer is for the Castro family to leave the country and give way to a transition. That is the only possible scenario at this time,” he said.
Morales also mentions pending legal proceedings in the United States against figures linked to the Cuban government, and recent statements by former Venezuelan intelligence chief Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal, who claimed that the strategy of flooding the United States with drugs was devised in Havana.
GAESA and the Dispute for Economic Power
One of the most sensitive points of his analysis is the GAESA business conglomerate, which controls large sectors of the Cuban economy and, in Morales’s view, “has plundered all the country’s wealth.”
He added that, though formally belonging to the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR), it “in practice functions as a family conglomerate controlled by the Castro family and those close to them.”
Morales believes not all military commanders are involved in the corruption associated with the business group, which, in his view, could open a different scenario in the event of a latest wave of protests like those on July 11, 2021.
“The conditions are in place,” he stressed. “It is highly probable that the government will fall. Something extraordinary would have to happen for it not to occur,” he reiterated.
Are There Lifelines for Havana?
Regarding the possibility of Mexico resuming oil shipments to Cuba, despite U.S. Sanctions, Morales was skeptical.
He also ruled out a bailout from Russia or China, recalling that Russian businessmen tried to promote legal reforms to invest in Cuba, but the government refused to introduce structural changes.
“The Russians have already given up on the Cuban issue,” he said.
Regarding reports in the Spanish press about alleged negotiations between Alejandro Castro Espín and U.S. Agents, Morales questioned the specific version, although he maintained that contacts do exist.
“What I can share you is that yes, negotiations are taking place. Who is negotiating? I don’t know. That is not relevant now… but it is a sign that goes against the rhetoric of President Díaz-Canel,” he said.
“I don’t think it will reach summer, a miracle would have to happen and with them there are no miracles,” the economist said about the regime.
In his opinion, the combination of energy collapse, economic bankruptcy, loss of external support, ideological weariness, and internal fractures creates a critical scenario.
“It could be before or in the summer, but I am sure it will be this year,” he concluded.
Morales’s words are not an isolated prediction, but rather a reflection of a growing perception within and outside the island: that the Cuban model faces a deep structural crisis, the outcome of which could mark a historic turning point.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Emilio Morales’s prediction regarding the Cuban regime?
Emilio Morales believes the Cuban regime is in its final phase and does not expect it to last until the summer.
What factors are contributing to the crisis in Cuba, according to Morales?
Morales cites the collapse of the energy matrix, the deterioration of the health system, the collapse of transportation, the paralysis of the productive sector, a $46 billion external debt, and a loss of ideological control as key factors.
What role does GAESA play in the current crisis?
According to Morales, GAESA, a business conglomerate, has “plundered all the country’s wealth” and functions as a “family conglomerate” controlled by the Castro family and their allies.
Given the confluence of economic hardship, political discontent, and external pressures, what potential pathways might Cuba take in the coming months?
