Despite ongoing tensions, a new agreement between the United States and Iran regarding its nuclear program remains possible, according to former negotiators from both countries. The key to a potential deal hinges on firm guarantees from Iran to suspend its nuclear program.
A Possible Path Forward
Rob Malley, a former US official and lead negotiator of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, indicated that a “short-term, fragile arrangement” could be reached, offering a potential win for both sides. The 2015 agreement, reached under the Obama administration, limited Iran’s uranium enrichment and the number of centrifuges it operated, though it did not eliminate the program entirely.
Recent developments, including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, decades of economic sanctions, and a weakening of its regional influence, may create an opportunity for the US to secure commitments from Tehran. According to sources, Iran could frame a suspension of enrichment as a temporary measure necessitated by the damage to its facilities.
“Iran could make the case that its suspension was born of necessity, given the June (2025) strikes and the unsafe state of its nuclear program and claim that it needs time before being able to resume enrichment,” sources stated.
A potential outcome could see the US maintaining its position that Iran should not enrich uranium on its soil, while Iran could argue it has not relinquished its right to do so. As Malley noted, “Both sides could describe it as a victory of sorts: Iran, by pointing to the fact that it has not relinquished the right to enrich and the US by boasting that President Trump had achieved what neither Obama nor Biden could, which is a halt to Iranian enrichment.”
Shifting Dynamics
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat, believes current conditions are “very different” but “more favorable” for a deal guaranteeing Iran’s permanent non-nuclear weapon status. He emphasized that Iran’s negotiations are focused on “survival and the preservation of its territorial integrity and national sovereignty,” and that it “will under no circumstances bargain away its defensive deterrence capabilities.”
However, Malley cautioned that the scope of any potential agreement remains uncertain, stating, “Of course, whether President Trump is open to a nuclear-only deal, or will insist that it covers ballistic missiles, Iran’s regional partners, or even its domestic policies, is a whole other matter.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current status of negotiations between the US and Iran?
Former negotiators believe an agreement remains achievable if Iran offers firm guarantees to suspend its nuclear program, though the specifics of any deal are currently uncertain.
What was the outcome of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal?
Under the agreement with the Obama administration, Iran’s uranium enrichment and number of centrifuges were limited without completely eliminating the program.
What factors might influence future negotiations?
Strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, economic sanctions, and the weakening of its regional proxies may create an opportunity for the US to extract commitments from Tehran.
Given the complex geopolitical landscape and shifting priorities, what conditions would be most conducive to a lasting agreement between the United States and Iran?
