Gulf States Rethink Iran Strategy: Beyond Hedging and Towards Proactive Engagement
For decades, Gulf states have largely pursued a strategy of “hedging” when it comes to Iran – attempting to manage risk and avoid direct confrontation. However, recent events, including the protests in Iran and escalating regional tensions, are forcing a reassessment. A growing consensus is emerging that simply avoiding escalation is no longer sufficient. Gulf nations are increasingly recognizing the need to proactively shape outcomes in Iran, given the direct impact its internal dynamics have on their own national security.
The Limits of Risk Avoidance
The recent protests in Iran highlighted a key shift in perspective. While Washington considered military strikes, most Gulf states actively discouraged such action, fearing escalation would destabilize the region without achieving meaningful political change within Iran. Their primary concern isn’t necessarily regime preservation, but rather the potential for chaos – state fragmentation, militia spillover, refugee crises, and disruptions to vital energy markets.
This reluctance reflects a deeper understanding: Gulf states are no longer distant observers of Iranian affairs, but frontline stakeholders. The traditional hedging strategy, focused on crisis management, is proving inadequate in the face of what appears to be structural uncertainty within Iran. Relying solely on risk avoidance is becoming a constraint, preventing Gulf nations from influencing the evolving security landscape.
Growing Doubts About External Security Providers
This shift in strategy is also fueled by growing skepticism towards traditional security partners, particularly the United States. Experiences like the 2025 12-Day Israel–Iran War, which included an Iranian strike on Qatar, and the muted response to attacks on Saudi oil installations in 2019, have raised questions about the reliability of external guarantees. This has spurred a search for “strategic autonomy,” but Gulf states recognize that true autonomy requires the capacity to shape outcomes, not just insulate against them.
The Saudi-Iranian détente of 2023 demonstrated a preference for mediation and diplomacy, but even this approach has limitations. Israel’s actions are increasingly viewed as destabilizing, potentially drawing the Gulf into conflicts it did not initiate. Unilateral security arrangements, such as those between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, or the UAE and India, are insufficient to address the core security dilemma.
Unlocking Gulf Leverage: Economic and Diplomatic Tools
Despite believing their leverage over Iran is limited, Gulf states possess significant, yet underutilized, tools. Economic interdependence – trade, transit access, energy provision – provides potential influence. The United Arab Emirates, for example, is Iran’s second-largest trading partner after China, with over $28 billion in trade in 2024. Qatar’s partnership in the South Pars/North Dome gas field, providing over 70% of Iran’s gas, is another key connection.
Diplomatically, Gulf states have significant mediation access and influence in Washington, which they are increasingly deploying not only for Iran-related issues but also for conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Regional mechanisms for security cooperation and crisis communication also offer opportunities for managing spillover effects.
Pro Tip: Gulf states should prioritize diversifying their engagement with Iran, moving beyond official government channels to include engagement with universities, think tanks, and cultural institutions to build a more nuanced understanding of the internal dynamics.
Scenario Planning for an Uncertain Future
A more credible Gulf strategy requires proactive scenario planning, moving beyond the binary of regime survival or collapse. Three plausible scenarios highlight the different approaches needed:
- Prolonged Internal Unrest: Engage with fragmented elements within Iran, potentially risking sanctions exposure to manage spillover and preserve influence.
- Elite-Led Transition: Build multifaceted relationships across the Iranian system, diversifying contacts to avoid misreading internal dynamics.
- Gradual Pragmatic Adaptation: Strengthen existing diplomatic efforts, focusing on institutionalized cooperation and regional security architecture.
Regardless of the scenario, a key takeaway is that passivity is no longer an option. The Gulf states must actively work to shape the environment around them, rather than simply reacting to events.
The Path Forward: A Gulf-Centric Regional Order
Achieving this requires a shared vision and integrated policy toolkit. Gulf states need to determine their long-term objectives – beyond mere regime preservation and economic returns – and consolidate their approach, addressing internal disputes. Investing in statehood and inviting a more moderate attitude from the Iranian regime has been a long-held demand.
the goal is to develop a Gulf-centric regional order that can accommodate other actors while prioritizing the security and prosperity of the region. This requires building local defense capacities, fostering regional connectivity, and proactively influencing the trajectory of neighboring states, including Iran.
FAQ
- What is “hedging” in the context of Gulf-Iran relations? Hedging refers to a strategy of risk avoidance, focusing on de-escalation and managing potential fallout rather than actively shaping outcomes.
- Why are Gulf states seeking “strategic autonomy”? Growing doubts about the reliability of external security providers, particularly the United States, are driving the desire for greater independence.
- What economic tools do Gulf states have to influence Iran? Trade, transit access, energy provision, and investment flows all provide potential leverage.
- What are the key scenarios for Iran’s future? Prolonged internal unrest, elite-led transition, and gradual pragmatic adaptation are three plausible scenarios.
Did you know? The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Vision for Regional Security, released in 2024, reflects a growing ambition to establish a more proactive and Gulf-centric regional order.
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