El Mencho’s Fall: A Turning Point in the War on Mexican Cartels?
The death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), marks a significant moment in Mexico’s ongoing struggle against drug trafficking. The February 22nd operation, resulting in El Mencho’s death and the deaths of six others, has triggered a wave of retaliatory violence across multiple states, raising questions about the future of the CJNG and the broader landscape of organized crime in Mexico.
Immediate Aftermath: Violence and Travel Disruptions
Following the news of El Mencho’s demise, CJNG operatives responded with widespread chaos. Reports indicate blockaded highways, burning vehicles, and torched businesses in over half a dozen states. The violence prompted the US State Department to issue shelter-in-place warnings for US citizens in Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Nuevo León. Several airlines, including United, American, Southwest, Air Canada, and WestJet/Sunwing, cancelled flights to popular tourist destinations like Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, leaving travelers stranded.
US Involvement and Mexico’s Sovereignty
The operation to capture El Mencho benefited from intelligence support provided by the United States. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed US assistance, and US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau hailed the outcome as a “great development.” However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has emphasized the importance of upholding Mexico’s sovereignty although continuing to cooperate with the US in combating cartels. She cautioned against any unilateral military action by the US within Mexican territory.
The Rise and Reign of El Mencho and the CJNG
El Mencho, a former police officer, founded and rapidly expanded the CJNG, which originated in the state of Jalisco. The cartel quickly became known for its violent tactics, including forced labor and recruitment. Under his leadership, the CJNG diversified its criminal activities beyond drug trafficking, engaging in fuel theft, extortion, human smuggling, and financial fraud. The cartel as well pioneered the use of drones in attacks, demonstrating a willingness to adopt new technologies to expand its influence.
Fractured Leadership and Potential for Infighting
Security experts predict that El Mencho’s death will likely lead to internal power struggles within the CJNG. Carlos Olivo, a former US Drug Enforcement Administration assistant special agent in charge, suggests that “skirmishes between the various factions” and “spasms of violence” could persist for years. The question remains whether a clear successor will emerge, or if the cartel will fragment into competing factions.
Broader Implications for Mexico’s Drug War
El Mencho’s death represents one of Mexico’s most significant successes against drug cartels. Unlike the captures of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada of the Sinaloa Cartel, who were taken alive and extradited to the US, El Mencho’s death occurred during a military operation within Mexico. This distinction underscores the Mexican government’s commitment to addressing the issue domestically, while still acknowledging the need for international cooperation.
Future Trends: What to Expect
Increased Regionalization of Cartel Activity
The removal of a central figure like El Mencho may not eliminate the CJNG, but it could accelerate a trend towards regionalization. Smaller, more autonomous cells may emerge, making them harder to target and disrupting traditional cartel structures. This could lead to increased localized violence as these cells compete for territory and resources.
Diversification of Criminal Enterprises
The CJNG, under El Mencho, already demonstrated a diversified portfolio of criminal activities. This trend is likely to continue, with cartels increasingly involved in extortion, human trafficking, and illegal mining, in addition to drug trafficking. This diversification makes them more resilient and harder to dismantle.
Technological Advancement in Cartel Operations
The CJNG’s use of drones is a clear indication of cartels’ willingness to embrace new technologies. Expect to see further adoption of sophisticated technologies, including encrypted communication platforms, cybercrime capabilities, and potentially even artificial intelligence, to enhance their operations and evade law enforcement.
Escalating Violence and Humanitarian Concerns
Retaliatory violence, as seen in the immediate aftermath of El Mencho’s death, is likely to grow more frequent and intense. This poses a significant threat to civilian populations and could lead to a further erosion of trust in government institutions. The potential for increased displacement and humanitarian crises is a growing concern.
FAQ
Q: Will El Mencho’s death end the violence in Mexico?
A: No. While a significant blow to the CJNG, it is unlikely to end the violence. Cartels are complex organizations, and power vacuums often lead to infighting and increased instability.
Q: What role did the US play in this operation?
A: The US provided intelligence support to the Mexican military during the planning and execution of the operation.
Q: Is it safe to travel to Mexico right now?
A: The US State Department has issued travel advisories for several states in Mexico. It is advisable to check the latest travel warnings and exercise caution if traveling to affected areas.
Q: What is the future of the CJNG?
A: The future of the CJNG is uncertain. It may fragment into smaller factions, leading to increased violence, or a new leader may emerge to consolidate power.
Did you recognize? The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has been described as one of the most dangerous and fastest-growing cartels in Mexico, known for its brazen attacks on security forces and its expanding international reach.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about the latest security developments in Mexico before and during your travel. Monitor official travel advisories and follow local news sources.
Want to learn more about the evolving dynamics of organized crime in Latin America? Explore our other articles on drug trafficking and security challenges.
