Ukraine War: A Stalemate and the Looming Threat of Prolonged Conflict
The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year with no clear end in sight. Russia’s advances are limited and costly, although Ukraine continues to resist, heavily reliant on external support. As of February 2026, Russia occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the entirety of Luhansk Oblast and significant portions of Donetsk Oblast – collectively known as the Donbas – as well as areas in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, with continued pressure on Kharkiv, and Sumy.
The Donbas: A Region of Strategic Importance
The Donbas, historically Ukraine’s industrial heartland and a coal-rich region, remains central to the conflict. Despite ongoing efforts, Russian troops have not been able to break through Ukrainian defenses and fully occupy the Donbas, a key objective of the war. The region, encompassing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, covers approximately 53,201 square kilometers. As of October 2025, Russia controls around 90% of the Donbas region.
A Grinding War of Attrition
The conflict has evolved into a war of attrition, characterized by modest territorial gains and immense costs in human life. Since February 2022, Russia is estimated to have suffered 1.2 million casualties, including 275,000-325,000 deaths – more losses than any major power since World War II. Ukraine’s losses are estimated at 500,000-600,000 casualties, with 100,000-140,000 deaths. The combined total of casualties could reach 2 million by 2026.
Recent advances by Russian forces have been incremental. In 2025, Russia conquered 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine, but at a high cost of 78 casualties per square kilometer. Despite these gains, the overall front line remains relatively stable.
Shifting Tactics and Technologies
Russia’s military strategy has shifted towards utilizing drones and missiles, with over 54,000 long-range drones and 1,900 missiles launched against Ukraine in 2025. This “war over cities” aims to cripple Ukraine’s infrastructure and break its resistance, but Ukrainian defenses are proving resilient, with infrastructure often restored within days of attack.
Interestingly, Russian aviation has played a limited role in the conflict, relying heavily on drones and missiles.
The Challenge of Replenishment and Support
Ukraine faces critical shortages of soldiers and weapons. While the US previously provided significant aid, its support has diminished following the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The European Union and other allies are attempting to fill the gap, but this assistance has limitations. Ukraine is increasingly reliant on automated systems to compensate for personnel shortages.
Russia also faces challenges in replenishing its forces and sustaining its war effort. Economic sanctions are beginning to impact the Russian economy, and its recruitment system is strained.
Negotiations and the Territorial Issue
The primary obstacle to peace negotiations remains the issue of territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin demands that Ukraine cede control of the remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast it controls, a demand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently rejected. The Donbas remains heavily fortified, and Russia could require a year or more to capture it by force.
The Future Outlook: A Prolonged Conflict
Analysts predict that the war will continue for the foreseeable future. No end is in sight before 2027, and the conflict is likely to persist as long as Putin remains in power. The situation is further complicated by the lack of significant breakthroughs on either side and the ongoing challenges of securing adequate support for Ukraine.
FAQ
Q: What is the Donbas?
A: The Donbas is a historical, cultural, and economic region in eastern Ukraine, primarily comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Q: What is Russia’s objective in the Donbas?
A: Russia aims to gain full control of the Donbas region, viewing it as strategically and historically significant.
Q: What is the current state of the fighting?
A: The conflict has turn into a war of attrition, with limited territorial gains and high casualties on both sides.
Q: Is a peaceful resolution likely?
A: A peaceful resolution is unlikely in the near future, as the key issue of territorial control remains unresolved.
Did you know? Russia launched more than 54,000 long-range drones against Ukraine in 2025.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about the conflict by following reputable news sources and analysis from organizations like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
What are your thoughts on the future of the conflict? Share your perspective in the comments below!
