Mortgage Rate Outlook: What March 2026 Holds for Homebuyers
Mortgage rates have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years. After peaking in October 2023 at 7.79%, rates have gradually decreased, influenced by six Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 1.75%, cooling inflation, and declining Treasury yields. As of February 25, 2026, qualified borrowers may now secure a 30-year rate under 6%.
The Impact of the Federal Reserve
With no Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for February 2026, borrowers have limited immediate catalysts for rate improvement. Though, the Federal Reserve’s decisions significantly influence the overall market. The next meeting is scheduled for March 17 and 18, with expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain the current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
Expert Predictions for March 2026
Experts generally anticipate mortgage rates will remain stable or experience a modest dip in March. Factors contributing to this outlook include a gradual decline in the 10-year Treasury yield and a decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January.
Mark Schweitzer, an associate professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University, expects rates to remain “pretty steady” in March, projecting a range of roughly 5.9% to 6.3% unless economic data presents a surprise.
Andrew Postell, sales manager and VP of mortgage lending at Rate.com, highlights the cumulative impact of incremental rate decreases over the past two years, noting that rates are now nearly two percentage points lower than in October 2023.
Beyond Policy Decisions: The Importance of Fed Commentary
Ralph DiBugnara, founder and president of Home Qualified, emphasizes that the Federal Reserve’s commentary is as crucial as its policy decisions. If the Fed signals a leveling out of the economy, it could pave the way for future rate cuts.
Where are Mortgage Rates Headed?
Experts project rates to remain around 6% throughout the year, with some fluctuation depending on economic data. Schweitzer suggests a realistic range of 5.9% to 6.3%, while DiBugnara anticipates a wider range of 5.75% to 6.25%, acknowledging potential volatility.
Pro Tip
Don’t try to time the market. If you find a home that fits your needs and budget, act quickly. You can always refinance later if rates drop.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence mortgage rates?
Federal Reserve policy, inflation, Treasury yields, and overall economic conditions all play a role in determining mortgage rates.
Will mortgage rates drop below 5% in 2026?
While not impossible, experts do not anticipate rates dropping below 5% in the near future.
What is a mortgage rate float-down?
A float-down allows borrowers to take advantage of lower rates if they fall between the time of application and closing.
Compare your current mortgage rate options here to learn more.
Edited by Angelica Leicht
