A shifting global order is intensifying competition between the U.S. And China, particularly in Eurasia. This competition is impacting strategically located countries and organizations, including the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), a regional platform linking Turkic-speaking nations across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Anatolia.
In 2025, trade between China and the five Central Asian states reached a record $106.3 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year. China’s exports to the region totaled approximately $71.2 billion, although imports from Central Asia reached $35.1 billion, marking the first time China surpassed Russia and other partners as the largest trading partner for all five Central Asian countries.
Conversely, U.S. Trade with Central Asian states remained comparatively low in 2025. Bilateral trade between the U.S. And Kazakhstan totaled around $2.1 billion in the first eight months of the year, a contraction from previous years.
Eurasia is a key arena for U.S.-China rivalry due to its importance for trade, energy, and emerging technologies. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) focuses on infrastructure investment, while the U.S. Promotes frameworks like the Blue Dot Network, emphasizing transparency and sustainability. These competing initiatives present both opportunities and risks for the OTS member states, including potential economic dependency and political pressure.
China vs. U.S.
OTS member states are located in a region where the interests of major powers – including China, Russia, and Iran – converge. The region is rich in energy resources and serves as a crucial transportation route between East Asia and Europe. The OTS is working to improve connectivity through the Middle Corridor, linking Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea and Türkiye, a route that has gained importance due to disruptions in northern transit corridors.
China is financing infrastructure projects, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with a $4.7 billion package including a $2.3 billion loan from China EximBank. This aims to increase cargo capacity and diversify Eurasian transit routes.
The U.S. Approach differs, relying on instruments like the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) that prioritize private investment, governance reform, and grants, rather than direct financing of large-scale railway construction. While the G-7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) aims to mobilize up to $600 billion, U.S. Engagement in Central Asia focuses on energy transition, critical minerals, and digital connectivity.
The U.S. Engages with the OTS indirectly, viewing greater cooperation among Turkic states as beneficial in reducing dependence on Russia and China. Through the C5+1 platform, the U.S. Strengthens bilateral ties with Central Asian republics and supports Türkiye-led connectivity initiatives. However, U.S. Support remains conditional, as demonstrated by concerns regarding the inclusion of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as an OTS observer.
China’s approach is shaped by its geographic proximity and security concerns, as Central Asia is central to its western strategic environment and the BRI’s China-Central/West Asia Economic Corridor. Beijing closely monitors developments that could affect its influence in the region.
The U.S.-China rivalry creates a complex environment for the OTS. Washington sees the organization as potentially filling power vacuums, while Beijing approaches it with caution. This dynamic impacts decision-making within the OTS, as member states pursue multi-vector foreign policies to balance relations with major powers.
This competitive setting presents risks for the OTS, but likewise enhances the bargaining power of its members. Careful management could allow Turkic states to benefit from both China’s economic initiatives and cooperation with the U.S. And the West in areas like security and energy.
the OTS occupies a nuanced position in a multipolar Eurasia. China exports capital through credit tied to connectivity, while the U.S. Exports standards and selective investment. The organization’s future depends on maintaining internal cohesion and strategic balance to shape, rather than simply react to, the evolving global order.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Organization of Turkic States (OTS)?
The OTS is a regional platform linking Turkic-speaking countries across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Anatolia.
How does China’s trade with Central Asia compare to that of the U.S.?
In 2025, two-way trade between China and the five Central Asian states exceeded $106.3 billion, while U.S. Trade with Kazakhstan alone was around $2.1 billion in the first eight months of the year.
What is the U.S. Approach to engaging with the OTS?
Washington does not treat the OTS as a primary policy target, but views greater cooperation among Turkic states as beneficial insofar as it reduces their dependence on Russia and China.
As the U.S. And China compete for influence in Eurasia, how will the Organization of Turkic States navigate these complex geopolitical pressures to secure its future?
