The confirmation that the United States has initiated “operaciones de combate importantes” in Iran has heightened global market concerns, surpassing the impact of recent geopolitical crises. This action has the potential to trigger repercussions far greater than previous episodes, given Iran’s significant role in the global energy flow.
Rising Concerns Over Global Oil Supply
Florian Weidinger, director of investments at Santa Lucia Asset Management, warned CNBC that the scale of this conflict “definitively has consequences greater than Venezuela.” While the Venezuelan crisis primarily affected specialized refineries due to the type of crude oil the South American nation produces—currently averaging 800,000 barrels per day, down from 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1990s—the situation with Iran presents structural risks.
Kenneth Goh, director of private wealth management at UOB Kay Hian in Singapore, explained that “Venezuela was a production story. [Iran] is a chokepoint story.”
Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is a key passage point for world oil supplies. The possibility of the conflict leading to the closure or disruption of this crucial route amplifies pressure on energy prices and international financial stability.
Market Reactions and Potential Scenarios
Some investors suggest that markets, recently accustomed to absorbing political and economic shocks—including Donald Trump’s announcement of a 15% increase in tariffs on all imports and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—may not react immediately.
However, precedents such as Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran in June 2025 demonstrate that, in the face of direct threats to the Strait of Hormuz, stock markets experienced sharp declines before recovering once continued oil flows were confirmed.
Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, warned on CNBC that Monday’s market open could be “rough and risk-off,” predicting declines in global stock markets of 1% to 2% or more, decreases of 5 to 10 basis points in U.S. Bond yields, and an increase in oil prices of 5% to 10%.
The extent of the market impact will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and whether We see limited to a short operation or escalates into a wider regional confrontation. David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, noted that if the U.S. Military operation is brief and contained, negative market reactions and increases in crude oil prices could be temporary.
Weidinger observed that “certain cross-asset moves already reflected a certain crisis environment,” referencing the recent strengthening of the oil market and U.S. Treasury bonds.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is recognized as one of the world’s principal oil transit points, with approximately 13 million barrels of crude oil per day passing through it in 2025, representing around 31% of all global maritime oil trade.
How did markets react to previous geopolitical events?
Markets have recently grow accustomed to absorbing political and economic shocks, including the announcement of increased tariffs by Donald Trump and the capture of Nicolás Maduro. However, threats to the Strait of Hormuz have previously caused sharp declines in stock markets.
What are the potential market impacts of the current conflict?
Analysts predict potential declines in global stock markets of 1% to 2% or more, decreases in U.S. Bond yields, and an increase in oil prices of 5% to 10%, depending on the duration and scope of the conflict.
As the situation unfolds, investors and fund managers will be closely watching the control of the conflict by the United States and any potential Iranian retaliation. The immediate focus for markets will remain the status of the Strait of Hormuz, given its importance to global energy security.
