Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley have emerged as their parties’ candidates for the upcoming Senate race to replace retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis, setting the stage for a costly and closely watched contest.
A Pivotal Race for Senate Control
Democrats need to win four seats in November to gain control of the Senate, and flipping Tillis’ seat is considered almost certain to be necessary to achieve that goal. Republicans are confident that Whatley, bolstered by the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, can compete in a state Trump has won three times.
Despite this history, many Democrats believe this year presents one of their best opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat in the state. While the national landscape and Trump’s approval rating will be important factors, much of the cautious optimism among Democrats centers on their candidate, Roy Cooper.
Contrasting Campaigns and Voter Demographics
Republicans believe Whatley can retain the seat, citing his endorsement and close relationship with Trump, which they say is important to their base. The North Carolina Republican Party likewise points to recent voter registration trends, noting that for the first time, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats, though both parties represent roughly 30% of registered voters.
However, unaffiliated registered voters make up the largest portion of the electorate at 39%. Strategists say these voters will ultimately decide the winner.
According to veteran political operator Paul Shumaker, “Cooper is a well-known candidate that unaffiliated voters have felt comfortable with. Whatley will have to build his own identity and argue why he is a better alternative to Cooper. It’s a more expensive path for Whatley.” Shumaker also noted that Trump built a winning coalition of unaffiliated voters in 2024, and Republicans must replicate that success to hold the seat.
Cooper has centered his campaign on affordability, highlighting the state’s economic growth during his time as governor and his bipartisan effort to expand Medicaid. He has also linked Whatley to what he calls Trump’s “chaotic” policies, such as tariffs, which Democrats argue have increased costs.
Whatley, in turn, has sought to attack Cooper’s reputation as a moderate. While promoting Trump’s economic record, much of his campaign has focused on portraying Cooper as weak on crime and immigration. Whatley expressed gratitude for Trump’s support, framing the election as a choice between “a conservative champion for North Carolina who will be an ally to President Trump” or “a defender of the failed policies of the left.”
Cooper presented his opponent as “a Washington insider and lobbyist for big oil, who only looks out for himself and his well-connected friends in Washington” in his primary victory speech.
Fundraising and Next Steps
Both Cooper and Whatley are prolific fundraisers. Cooper has raised over $21 million since announcing his candidacy in July, while Whatley has raised nearly $6.5 million.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is at stake in the North Carolina Senate race?
Democrats need to gain four seats in the Senate to obtain control, and flipping the seat held by retiring Senator Thom Tillis is considered crucial to their chances.
Who are the candidates?
The candidates are former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, representing the Democrats, and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, representing the Republicans.
What role will Donald Trump play in the election?
Michael Whatley has the endorsement of Donald Trump, and Republicans believe his support will be important in appealing to their base in a state Trump has won three times.
As the general election approaches, will the economic climate and the ability of each candidate to mobilize unaffiliated voters prove decisive in determining the next Senator from North Carolina?
Worth a look