HOUSTON – KPRC 2’s weather team is tracking a severe weather threat across parts of Southeast Texas, potentially impacting Wednesday’s afternoon commute and plans for the Houston rodeo.
What These Levels Actually Mean
Understanding the risk levels is a common question, particularly as families make plans for spring break and the Houston rodeo.
Understanding the Risk Levels
According to NOAA and NWS, a “Marginal Risk” (1 out of 5, indicated in green) signifies an area of severe storms with limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity. In simpler terms, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, but are typically short-lived, disorganized, and spotty.
A “Slight Risk” (2 out of 5, indicated in yellow) represents an area of organized severe storms, though not widespread, with varying levels of intensity. This means scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, with better organization and structure, making them more dependable to produce severe weather where they form.
What Does This Mean for Wednesday?
Areas north of the Houston Metro and east of Caldwell are under a slight risk (2 out of 5), while the remainder of Southeast Texas is at a marginal risk (1 out of 5).
The probability of damaging winds is 5-15%. The probability of large hail is 5%. The tornado probability is 2-5%, with higher percentages in brown areas and lower percentages in green areas.
neither risk level constitutes a “major outbreak” scenario, which would be categorized as a 4 or 5/High risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Marginal Risk mean?
A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) indicates an area where isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, but they are typically short-lived, disorganized, and spotty.
What does a Slight Risk mean?
A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) indicates an area where scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, with better organization and structure.
What are the potential hazards associated with these storms?
The potential hazards include damaging winds, large hail, and a low probability of tornadoes, with the highest risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in the yellow (slight risk) areas.
As the weather situation develops, will you be prepared to adjust your plans based on the latest forecasts?
Worth a look