For decades, the US and its allies have characterized Iran as a major sponsor of state terrorism, citing the Islamic rulers’ perceived revolutionary fanaticism and support for militant groups. Now, with the war waged on the country by the US and Israel, a long-standing threat is escalating, raising the risk of an attack on American soil to levels not seen since the September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacks, according to experts.
Heightened Domestic Threat
Recent events illustrate the increased dangers. On Thursday, one person was killed and two wounded when a gunman yelling “Allahu Akbar” opened fire at Old Dominion University in Virginia. The shooter, a former national guardsman, had previously admitted attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State. In Michigan, Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, a Lebanese-born US citizen, rammed a truck into a synagogue in West Bloomfield Township before being shot dead by security. Ghazali had lost family members in an Israeli raid on Lebanon this month.
These incidents followed a deadly attack on March 1 in Austin, Texas, where a man wearing clothing with an Iranian flag design and the words “property of Allah” shot two people dead and wounded 14 before being fatally shot by police. While no direct link to Iran has been established, analysts believe an “asymmetric” attack ordered or inspired by Tehran is a real and present danger.
Political Implications
The escalating threat comes during an election year, and opponents of Donald Trump are warning that a terrorist attack on US soil could benefit him, potentially providing a pretext to declare a state of emergency or even cancel November’s congressional midterm elections. Historian Timothy Snyder has written that provoking a terrorist attack could be a purpose of the war on Iran, giving Trump a reason to “federalize” the upcoming elections.
Concerns About Readiness
Adding to the concern is perceived instability within the FBI and Department of Homeland Security, leaving the US potentially underprepared. Reports indicate that fledgling FBI agents have been re-deployed as uniformed police officers in Washington DC, and vital homeland security surveillance functions have been temporarily suspended due to a partial DHS shutdown. This comes as resources have been diverted away from counter-terrorism and toward other priorities.
Intelligence suggests Iran may have attempted to activate “sleeper cells” within the US. On the day the war began, a Farsi-speaking man was heard reading what was believed to be a cipher code on short-wave radio. Ali Kourani, a naturalized US citizen, previously described himself as a “sleeper” agent to investigators, stating he would act if the US were in direct conflict with Iran.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the nature of the threat from Iran?
Analysts say an “asymmetric” attack ordered or inspired by Tehran in response to the US-Israeli military action is a real and present danger, potentially taking the form of criminal surrogates or lone actors.
Has Iran previously plotted attacks within the US?
US authorities believe they have discovered and stopped 17 Iranian-inspired plots in the past five years. The regime is also believed to have plotted to kill Donald Trump and former officials Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.
What is the current state of readiness within US security agencies?
There are concerns about the readiness of the FBI and Department of Homeland Security, with reports of re-deployed agents and temporarily suspended surveillance functions.
Given the current situation, what steps might be taken to mitigate the risk of attacks within the United States?
