Digitalization has led to an explosion of data, enabling the creation of increasingly sophisticated evaluation models. Today, rankings determine who excels in various areas, influencing choices from university selection to entertainment consumption and investment strategies.
Rankings have become indispensable across numerous domains – economy, science, art, education, reputation, elections, and more – shaping both competition and behavior.
The Rise of Measurement and Control
Everything is being quantified and ranked, a process that aims not just to improve but also to capture and control. Aspects of life that resist measurement risk becoming marginalized.
Institutions focused on measurement and evaluation are proliferating, establishing legitimacy and increasingly shaping their respective fields. Investments are guided by their reports, and countries strive to improve their positions in international rankings.
Distortions Inherent in Ranking
Subjecting quality to measurement inevitably introduces distortions, as described by Campbell’s Law – the more a social indicator is used for decision-making, the more susceptible it becomes to corruption – and Goodhart’s Law, which states that a measure loses its value when it becomes a target for policy.
These distortions contribute to growing inequalities, as data distributions increasingly follow a “power law,” where prior success breeds further success, a phenomenon identified by sociologist Robert Merton as the “Matthew Effect.”
The Role of Networks and “Fitness”
Success is not solely about individual effort, but is heavily influenced by networks and the distribution of success indicators. As scientist Albert-Laszlo Barabasi states, “Success is not about you. It’s about us.”
Barabasi’s research reveals three laws of success: performance drives success, but networks are crucial when performance is difficult to measure; performance is limited, but success is unbounded; and previous success, combined with “fitness” – a competitive strength – determines future success.
From Normal to Power-Law Distribution
While performance typically follows a normal distribution, success is distributed according to a power law, meaning slight differences in performance can lead to disproportionately large differences in reward. This decoupling of performance and reward results in extreme concentrations of wealth and recognition.
This trend is amplified by globalization, which has created hyper-connected networks and an “avalanche effect” in the distribution of success.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Campbell’s Law?
Campbell’s Law states that the more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more it will distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.
What is Goodhart’s Law?
Goodhart’s Law states that when a social or economic indicator or other measure becomes a target for the purpose of conducting social or economic policy, it ceases to be a good measure and loses the information content it originally had.
According to Barabasi, what is the relationship between performance and success?
Barabasi states that “Performance drives success, but when performance can’t be measured, networks drive success.” He also notes that previous success, combined with “fitness,” determines future success.
As these systems evolve, how might individuals and institutions navigate the complexities of a world increasingly defined by metrics and rankings?
