South Australia’s state election has concluded with Labor poised for a significant victory, though the results reveal a dramatic surge in support for One Nation that is reshaping the state’s political landscape.
Landslide Victory for Labor
Premier Peter Malinauskas is expected to lead Labor to its largest victory in South Australian history, with a YouGov poll forecasting a 59-41 win on a two-party preferred basis. Malinauskas himself voted in Croydon alongside his wife and four children, marking the first time he has voted with a full family.
One Nation’s Unexpected Rise
While Labor is securing a landslide, the election is being closely watched due to the substantial gains made by One Nation. Polling indicates One Nation’s support at 22 to 28 percent, surpassing the Liberal vote which stands at 14 to 20 percent. This marks the first time One Nation has held the second-highest share of the vote in South Australia.
The Liberal Party, led by Ashton Hurn who assumed the role just 103 days prior to the election, is projected to achieve its worst result in any state or federal election since the coalition was formed, with a forecast of 19 percent of the vote.
Implications and Potential Shifts
Experts suggest One Nation’s success signals a growing frustration with the major parties. Adelaide University emeritus professor of politics Clem Macintyre stated that One Nation’s rise has the potential to create a watershed moment in Australian politics, potentially signaling the end of two-party politics at a federal level. Flinders University’s Josh Sunman noted that One Nation ran a surprisingly disciplined campaign, focusing on targeted messaging.
The state’s 600 polling booths closed at 6pm local time, with counting underway to confirm the final results.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current forecast for Labor’s win?
YouGov forecasts a 59-41 win for Labor on a two-party preferred basis, representing a 4.4 percent swing in their favor.
How does One Nation’s performance compare to previous elections?
One Nation is polling more than 22 percent, which is their strongest result in any statewide or federal election in Australia in nearly 30 years.
What was the early voting turnout?
A record 454,862 South Australians (34.5 percent) cast their ballots at early voting centers, and another 174,000 (13.2 percent) requested postal ballots, meaning almost half of eligible voters may have voted before election day.
As South Australia’s political landscape shifts, what impact will One Nation’s surge have on future policy debates and the direction of the state?
