A new representative poll suggests that the current coalition government in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) could maintain its majority in the next state election. However, the data reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment, characterized by a sharp decline for the SPD and substantial gains for the AfD.
Shifting Political Allegiances in NRW
According to the “NRW-Check” conducted by the Forsa institute between April 7 and 14, 2026, the CDU currently stands at 32 percent. This represents a six-point drop compared to the previous survey in summer 2025 and a decrease of nearly three points from the 2022 election.
The AfD has surged to second place with 20 percent, marking a 15-point increase since the last election. Meanwhile, the Greens have seen a rise to 17 percent, a four-point increase over the previous year, though this remains slightly below their 2022 result.
The SPD has experienced a significant downturn, falling to fourth place with 14 percent. This figure is nearly half of the 26.7 percent the party achieved on the 2022 election night. Other shifts include Die Linke rising to 6 percent, which would allow them to enter the state parliament, even as the FDP has fallen to 3 percent, potentially leaving them below the five-percent threshold.
Coalition Stability and Public Dissatisfaction
While the CDU and Greens may be able to defend their governing majority, public approval is waning. For the first time in over two years, a majority of respondents (51 percent) are dissatisfied with the state government, compared to 42 percent who are satisfied.
The administration has recently faced several challenges. These include the resignation of Greens’ Refugee Minister Josefine Paul in late January and allegations of rigid leadership behavior against CDU Interior Minister Ina Scharrenbach.
Key Issues and Leadership Outlook
Voters identify transport and mobility, the general economic situation, and migration and refugees as the state’s three biggest problems. Compared to July 2025, economic concerns have become more prominent, while migration is mentioned less frequently.
Minister-President Hendrik Wüst continues to maintain a level of personal support despite the CDU’s decline. Approximately 47 percent of respondents are satisfied with his work, and 41 percent believe he should remain Minister-President after the next election.
Looking ahead to the state election on April 25, 2027, the current trends suggest the political landscape may continue to fragment. The SPD could face a historic struggle in its traditional stronghold if it cannot increase the visibility of its leadership.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current poll numbers for the main parties in NRW?
The CDU is at 32 percent, the AfD is at 20 percent, the Greens are at 17 percent, and the SPD is at 14 percent.
Which parties could enter or depart the state parliament based on the poll?
Die Linke, at 6 percent, would enter the parliament, while the FDP, at 3 percent, would fall below the five-percent threshold and exit the parliament.
What are the top concerns for citizens in North Rhine-Westphalia?
The primary concerns are transport and mobility, the general economic situation, and migration and refugees.
Do you believe a government’s ability to maintain a majority is more important than its overall popularity with the public?
