The Physics of Conflict: Why No War Lasts Forever
In the fog of prolonged geopolitical instability, it is simple to succumb to the psychological trap of believing that a status quo will persist indefinitely. However, Mihailo Vysotskyi, an associate professor at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, argues that we should look to the laws of physics to understand the trajectory of human conflict.
Drawing on fundamental principles, Vysotskyi suggests that all systems—whether biological, social, or political—are bound by the laws of thermodynamics and entropy. Just as a pendulum eventually loses energy and returns to a state of rest, large-scale societal disruptions are inherently finite. By applying this “physics-first” lens to global events, we gain a more objective perspective on how crises resolve.
The Subjectivity of “Eternal” Conflict
Human perception is famously poor at measuring time during periods of stress. When we are immersed in a news cycle dominated by conflict, our brains prioritize immediate threats, creating a cognitive bias that makes the present moment feel permanent. What we have is often referred to as temporal myopia.
From a scientific standpoint, history is a series of non-equilibrium processes. These processes move toward a state of equilibrium, even if the path is volatile. In international relations, this is often reflected in the resolution of civil and interstate wars, which almost always conclude through a mix of exhaustion, resource depletion, or diplomatic realignment.
Did you know? Studies in conflict resolution indicate that the average duration of modern interstate wars has decreased since the mid-20th century, largely due to the high economic cost of maintaining long-term military operations in a globalized world.
Entropy and the End of Systems
Entropy—the measure of disorder in a system—dictates that structures will eventually break down if they cannot sustain the energy required to maintain them. In geopolitical terms, this applies to the logistics, economic output, and social cohesion required to sustain a war effort.
- Resource Exhaustion: No nation possesses infinite raw materials or capital.
- Social Fatigue: Public support for prolonged conflicts naturally wanes as the “opportunity cost” of the war begins to outweigh the perceived benefits.
- Structural Instability: Internal political pressure often forces a recalibration of national goals.
Applying Scientific Thinking to Current Events
If we view global crises through the lens of physics, we see that “victory” or “defeat” are not the only outcomes; there is also the thermodynamic reality of system collapse or transformation. Experts often look at data points from the World Bank regarding the economic impact of conflict to predict when a state reaches its “breaking point.”
Pro Tip: When analyzing news, separate the emotional narrative from the logistical reality. Look for data on defense spending, trade impacts, and demographic shifts rather than relying solely on headlines to gauge the longevity of a conflict.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Why does it feel like some wars last forever?
- This is due to our subjective perception of time during stressful events. Our brains struggle to predict the end of a negative process, creating a sense of permanence.
- Can physics really predict politics?
- While physics cannot predict specific political choices, it defines the boundaries within which those choices must be made. Resources and energy are finite, which forces change eventually.
- What is the most common factor that ends a conflict?
- Historically, the most common factor is the exhaustion of the resources necessary to continue the conflict, coupled with a shift in the cost-benefit analysis of the involved parties.
Engage With the Discussion
History teaches us that resilience is a human trait, but physics reminds us that change is the only constant. How do you maintain a long-term perspective during times of global uncertainty? Share your thoughts in the comments below or join our community newsletter for deep dives into how science intersects with today’s headlines.
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