Millions of homes across Great Britain face an increasing risk of climate-related subsidence as hotter, drier summers cause the ground to shrink and pull on building foundations, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS). Scientists warn that the number of susceptible properties could rise significantly by 2070, with London, Essex, Kent, and areas stretching from Oxford to the Wash identified as the most vulnerable regions.
Why subsidence is a growing risk
Subsidence occurs when the soil beneath a structure loses moisture, causing it to shrink and destabilize the property’s foundation. Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, describes the situation as a “double whammy” for London, where a high density of buildings coincides with projections for the most significant changes in rainfall and temperature.
While existing foundations may currently withstand minor moisture fluctuations, future climate conditions are expected to increase ground movement. This deterioration can manifest through diagonal cracks around window and door frames or sloping floors. In severe cases, homeowners may face the need for extensive engineering work, such as underpinning, or the removal of nearby vegetation and utility pipe repairs.
The UK experienced its warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years in 2025, a year that saw £153m in subsidence-related insurance claims during the first six months alone.
Projected impact on property values
Subsidence can severely diminish a property’s market value, often leading lenders to withhold mortgage offers until the structural issues are fully resolved. The BGS dataset forecasts that under a low-emissions scenario aligned with the Paris climate agreement, approximately 500,000 properties could be affected by 2070.
Under a medium-emissions scenario—which aligns more closely with current global trajectories—that figure rises to more than 1.8 million properties. In London, highly populated boroughs such as Camden, Islington, and Barnet are particularly susceptible, with more than 26% of properties in the capital potentially affected by 2070 under this medium-emissions projection.
The correlation between rising temperatures and structural instability highlights a shift in property risk management. Homeowners and insurers are moving from a model of reactive repairs to one of long-term mitigation, as the frequency of extreme weather events makes historical stability data less reliable for predicting future foundation integrity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the primary signs of subsidence?
According to the BGS, visible indicators include diagonal cracks appearing around window and door frames, as well as floors that have begun to slope.
Which regions are most at risk?
The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent, and a tranche of land extending from Oxford to the Wash on England’s east coast.
How do emissions scenarios affect the number of properties at risk?
Projections vary by climate trajectory: a low-emissions scenario suggests 500,000 properties could be affected by 2070, while a medium-emissions scenario—consistent with current trajectories—forecasts that number rising to over 1.8 million.
How might these environmental shifts change your approach to long-term property maintenance?
Worth a look