The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) reports that heavy rainfall will persist across much of Mexico, including Mexico City, through Monday, June 15. Authorities warn that these conditions, characterized by intense precipitation, electrical storms, and potential hail, may trigger flooding, river overflows, and landslides in vulnerable areas.
Weather Forecast and Impact Areas
The SMN expects the most severe rainfall, ranging from 75 to 150 mm, to impact states including Jalisco, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo this Friday. Throughout the weekend, the storm system is projected to maintain its intensity, shifting focus across various regions. By Saturday, June 13, heavy accumulation is forecast for Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, and Nayarit. Sunday, June 14, will see continued high precipitation levels in Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Puebla, and Veracruz. Residents are cautioned that high wind gusts during these events could damage trees and outdoor advertising structures.
Rainfall levels recorded between January and June 2026 have been 15% more intense than the 30-year climatological average, according to Jorge Zavala Hidalgo, an investigator at the Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático (ICAyCC).
Long-term Climate Implications
While current rainfall is significant, researchers are monitoring the development of El Niño for later this year. Jorge Zavala Hidalgo notes that although the current impact of the phenomenon is minor, it is expected to intensify toward the end of 2026 and into early 2027. This shift could lead to more pronounced changes in air quality, temperature, and precipitation patterns by the spring of 2027.
The current meteorological activity highlights the compounding risks associated with water-based damage. While high-velocity winds receive significant attention, the data from the ICAyCC suggests that flooding and soil instability represent the most critical threats during this period. The potential for a “super” El Niño adds a layer of uncertainty, as it may escalate the intensity of Pacific hurricane systems, according to Christian Domínguez Sarmiento of the UNAM.
Future Risks and Cyclonic Activity
Looking ahead, the potential arrival of a “super” El Niño could alter the climate landscape for Mexico. Christian Domínguez Sarmiento warns that this could favor the development of more intense systems in the Pacific, including Category 4 or 5 hurricanes. Even if these systems do not make direct landfall, the associated heavy rains and storm surges—the abnormal elevation of sea levels—pose a significant threat to coastal and inland regions alike.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main hazards associated with the current rainfall?
The SMN warns of electrical discharges, hail, rising water levels in rivers and streams, waterlogging, flooding in low-lying areas, and landslides in mountainous regions.
How long will the current rainy weather last?
The SMN indicates that conditions are favorable for these rains to continue through at least Monday, June 15.
How might El Niño affect Mexico in the future?
According to Christian Domínguez Sarmiento, it could lead to a more intense Pacific hurricane season, including the possibility of Category 4 or 5 storms, and affect long-term precipitation and temperature patterns.
How are you and your community preparing for the forecasted heavy rains this weekend?
