The United States and Iran have signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding to end the war that began on February 28, according to Axios. This agreement implements a 60-day ceasefire extension, including Lebanon, and aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though disputes persist over maritime fees and the timing of sanctions relief.
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen without restrictions?
The United States expects a significant increase in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within the next two weeks, according to a senior US official. While the US maintains that the agreement allows for passage without transit fees or restrictions, Iranian officials have signaled a different approach to maritime control.
A regional diplomat involved in mediation told Axios that the deal intends to return shipping volumes to pre-war levels within 30 days. However, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that while Tehran agrees to waive transit fees during the initial 60-day period, it plans to implement “safety and environmental” fees at a later date.
Global shipping companies, including Maersk, are currently maintaining a cautious stance. These firms are reportedly waiting for explicit safety guarantees and legal clarity before resuming full operations in the region. A Pentagon official confirmed that the US military has received orders to prepare for the lifting of the blockade following the formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva.
What are the economic gains for Iran under this deal?
The agreement offers Iran two primary benefits: an end to active hostilities and sanctions exemptions that facilitate oil exports. However, significant contradictions exist between Washington and Tehran regarding the immediate availability of cash.
Iranian state media has reported that the government will receive billions of dollars in frozen assets immediately upon signing. A senior US official categorically denied these claims, stating that any access to such funds will operate on a “pay-for-compliance” basis. Under this framework, economic benefits are tied directly to Iran’s adherence to the agreement’s terms.
The US administration has emphasized that full economic relief remains contingent on a more detailed, technical nuclear agreement. While the White House described claims of immediate cash transfers as “misinformation,” a senior official noted that the US might offer “small gestures” regarding frozen funds if Iran demonstrates early commitment to the memorandum.
How does the agreement affect Israel and the conflict in Lebanon?
The 60-day ceasefire extension includes Lebanon, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Israeli leadership. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel will not withdraw from territories it currently controls in southern Lebanon and maintains its right to respond to Hezbollah attacks.
The agreement’s impact on military freedom of movement remains a point of contention. While a senior US official told reporters that the deal does not require an Israeli withdrawal or a “unilateral ceasefire,” Israeli officials expressed concerns that the arrangement could severely limit their ability to conduct military operations against Hezbollah.
Tensions between the US and Israel also surfaced following an Israeli strike on Beirut last Sunday. President Donald Trump told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “lacks judgment” regarding the timing of the strike, which nearly derailed the negotiations. Trump stated his intention to hold brief discussions with Hezbollah to resolve the situation in Lebanon.
Is a permanent nuclear agreement likely?
The current memorandum of understanding serves as a framework to launch a 60-day window of intensive nuclear negotiations. Most aspects of the deal regarding Iran’s nuclear program depend on reaching a technically detailed final agreement.
Preparations for these talks are already underway. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner recently met with nuclear experts at the Oak Ridge facility in Tennessee to prepare for the upcoming technical sessions. Additionally, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, acting as a mediator, confirmed that meetings will be held this week to facilitate the start of nuclear talks.
Despite the diplomatic momentum, US officials acknowledge that mutual distrust remains a significant barrier. One official noted that the US will not withdraw military forces from the region until a comprehensive nuclear deal is finalized. Conversely, Iranian officials claim that the current geopolitical landscape gives Tehran stronger leverage in the negotiations.
Frequently Asked Questions
US officials expect the full text of the memorandum to be released within 24 to 48 hours, though President Trump suggested publication might wait until after the formal signing on Friday.
Yes, a 60-day ceasefire extension that includes Lebanon has already entered into effect.
No. While Iranian media claims immediate access, US officials state that any release of funds will follow a “pay-for-compliance” model.
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