Latvia’s international migration balance is declining, with a projected net loss of roughly 12,000 people in 2026 if current trends persist. According to the World Bank and Latvia’s Central Statistical Bureau (CSB), the 2025 migration balance reached -3.9 per mille, signaling a return to the emigration patterns seen between 2008 and 2016.
Why is Latvia’s migration balance shifting back to negative?
The shift marks the end of a period of positive migration that lasted from 2017 to 2024. During those years, Latvia maintained a positive migration balance of +0.57 people per 1,000 inhabitants. This stability was largely driven by COVID-19 travel restrictions and the massive influx of Ukrainian refugees following the Russian invasion in early 2022.
Current data suggests that the “refugee effect” is receding. The World Bank and CSB statistics indicate that many Ukrainian refugees are now moving to other European nations or returning to Ukraine. This movement is part of a broader trend across the Baltic region, where the high positive migration balances seen in 2022 and 2023 are being replaced by negative figures in 2024 and 2025.
If the current trajectory continues, the net migration balance for 2026 could reach approximately -12,000 people. This would mirror the era between 2008 and 2016, when emigration was the primary driver of Latvia’s population decline.
In demography, a “per mille” (‰) represents one part per thousand. It is a more precise way to measure population changes like birth and death rates compared to percentages, which use parts per hundred.
How are death rates and natural growth impacting the population?
While migration is a major factor, the country’s “natural growth”—the difference between births and deaths—is also worsening. CSB data shows that while the number of births remained relatively stable between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026, the death rate rose significantly.
In the first quarter of 2025, Latvia recorded 6,876 deaths. In the same period in 2026, that number rose to 7,302, representing a 6.2% increase. Consequently, the natural population growth became 10.3% more negative year-over-year, dropping from a loss of 4,120 people in early 2025 to a loss of 4,545 people in early 2026.
Comparison of Q1 Migration Data
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Net Migration Balance (Approx.) | -780 people | -3,055 people |
| Recorded Births | 2,756 | 2,757 |
| Recorded Deaths | 6,876 | 7,302 |
What is happening in Estonia and Lithuania?
Latvia is not an isolated case; the entire Baltic region is experiencing synchronized shifts. However, the severity varies by country. According to 2025 data, Estonia recorded the most significant negative migration balance in the region at -9.7 per mille, ranking 12th worst globally.
Lithuania follows with a migration balance of -8.5 per mille, placing it 16th globally. Latvia’s -3.9 per mille places it 25th in the world. Analysts suggest the similarity in these trends is due to the shared experience of the Ukrainian refugee influx and the subsequent movement of those populations toward other EU member states.
How does this compare to the European Union?
The trend in the Baltics reflects a broader cooling of migration within the European Union. For the first time since 1997, the EU’s total international migration balance turned negative in 2025, reaching -0.7 per mille.
Historically, EU migration flows have spiked during periods of intense conflict, such as the 2015 migrant crisis and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The recent decline suggests that the era of massive, sudden population shifts driven by regional conflicts may be stabilizing, even as individual nations face demographic challenges.
Economists and investors use World Bank migration data to assess a country’s investment environment. A declining working-age population can impact long-term economic growth and labor market stability.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the migration balance important for Latvia’s economy?
Migration levels affect the available workforce, tax revenue, and the overall consumer market. A sustained negative balance can lead to labor shortages and increased pressure on social security systems.
What caused the positive migration in 2022?
The positive balance in 2022 was primarily due to the massive influx of Ukrainian refugees seeking safety within the EU and the Baltic states.
Is the decline in birth rates also a factor?
While birth rates have remained relatively stable in recent quarters, the rising death rate is currently a primary driver of the declining natural population growth.
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