Residents across Victoria, New South Wales, and southwest Queensland are preparing for heavy rainfall next week as two distinct rain bands move across the country. According to Weatherzone and the Bureau of Meteorology, these systems are expected to deliver accumulated falls of 50 to 100 millimetres over the next seven days, with the heaviest accumulation focused on the Murray-Darling Basin. Weatherzone notes that “unseasonable” weather could lead to “many areas” across the country seeing between 40 to 80 millimetres of rain over the coming days.
Why is this weather event occurring now?
The current unseasonable rainfall is primarily driven by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is currently in a strongly positive phase. According to Weatherzone, this state of the SAM—the highest level since May 2023—is drawing moisture over Australia from the east, which is increasing rainfall. While most rain in Queensland’s north tropical coast usually falls between October and April, it is “very unusual” for heavy rainfall to occur in June due to these shifting westerly winds that flow around Antarctica.
Did You Know? The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) fluctuates between positive and negative phases every one to three weeks, a rapid shift that accounts for wildly unpredictable weather from week to week in many parts of the country.
How does this relate to the recent El Nino declaration?
The heavy rainfall appears to contradict the Bureau of Meteorology’s recent declaration of Australia’s “strongest ever” El Nino event, which typically brings drier conditions. However, the Bureau notes that Australia’s weather is shaped by multiple climate factors. While the Indian and Southern oceans are temporarily offsetting the drying influence of El Nino, the odds still favour a hotter and drier second half of 2026 for much of southern and eastern Australia.
Expert Insight: The disconnect between current wet conditions and the long-term El Nino forecast highlights the complexity of Australian meteorology. While short-term drivers like the SAM can cause unseasonable rain, they do not necessarily negate the broader, systemic climate trends that suggest a hotter, drier year ahead.
What happens next for the affected regions?
The rain bands are expected to strengthen on Monday, bringing more persistent rainfall after a brief period of weakening. Following the crossing of the Murray-Darling Basin, a second burst of rainfall is anticipated midweek. This system is likely to bring colder air, which forecasters note will provide timely alpine snow for ski resorts. Beyond the immediate week, global climate scientists, including Marshall Burke, are monitoring the lagging effects of the current El Nino, with some predictions warning 2027 could be the hottest year in history.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where will the heaviest rain fall?
The heaviest falls are expected to occur across Australia’s southeast inland, specifically within the Murray-Darling Basin, with accumulated totals of 50 to 100 millimetres possible over the next week.
Is it normal to have this much rain in June?
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, it is considered unusual for northern areas to receive this much rain at this time of year, and heavy rainfall in June is described as “very unusual” for Queensland’s north tropical coast.
Does this rain mean El Nino has failed?
No. Meteorologists state that the apparent contradiction does not mean El Nino has failed to arrive, as other climate factors, such as the Southern Annular Mode and conditions in the Indian and Southern oceans, are currently offsetting El Nino’s drying influence.
How have these unseasonable weather patterns affected your local area this winter?
