As the Philippines nears the 10th anniversary of its 2016 arbitral victory against China, the Stratbase Institute is urging the national government to accelerate the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). According to institute president Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit, the country must now transition from relying on its legal victory under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to building tangible “strategic strength” and credible deterrence in the West Philippine Sea.
Modernizing for Regional Security
The call for military advancement comes ahead of a July 10 forum, “A Decade of the Arbitral Award: Credible Deterrence in Defense of the West Philippine Sea,” which will be led by Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr. Manhit stated that the government should prioritize the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) to transform the AFP into a force capable of operating across land, sea, air, cyber, and information domains. This push for modernization is framed as a necessary response to Beijing’s continued refusal to recognize the 2016 ruling, which invalidated the nine-dash line claim over much of the South China Sea.
The 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling was issued on July 12, 2016, specifically under the framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to address maritime rights and claims in the region.
Public Support for Defense Initiatives
Recent data indicates that the public aligns with the need for a stronger defense posture. Manhit cited a 2025 Pulse Asia survey, which found that Filipinos identify support for the AFP and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) as the most critical measure for defending the nation’s maritime rights. Furthermore, a separate survey conducted in May this year revealed that 86 percent of Filipinos support the government’s efforts to defend the West Philippine Sea in partnership with like-minded nations. These findings suggest a broad consensus that legal and diplomatic efforts alone are insufficient without concurrent capability building and international alliances.
The shift from legal advocacy to a “whole-of-society” defense model represents a significant evolution in Philippine security policy. By integrating civil society, academia, and private sector resilience with military modernization, the state appears to be preparing for a long-term, multi-dimensional challenge in the West Philippine Sea. The participation of at least 10 international ambassadors in the upcoming forum underscores that this is not merely a local concern, but a key component of the broader rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.
What Happens Next
The July 10 forum is expected to serve as a platform for evaluating the progress made since 2016 and identifying remaining security gaps. Observers anticipate that discussions will focus on strengthening deterrence, improving national preparedness, and building public resilience. While the event will include a diverse group of stakeholders—including diplomats, maritime experts, and Cardinal Pablo Virgilio “Ambo” David—the outcomes could influence future government policies regarding military procurement and joint security exercises with international partners. Analysts suggest that the emphasis on “whole-of-society” participation may lead to more integrated efforts between the government, the private sector, and faith-based organizations to bolster national resilience.
Frequently Asked Questions
[What is the primary goal of the upcoming July 10 forum?]
The forum, titled “A Decade of the Arbitral Award: Credible Deterrence in Defense of the West Philippine Sea,” aims to assess the gains achieved since the 2016 ruling and identify ongoing challenges, with a focus on strengthening deterrence and national preparedness.
[What does the Stratbase Institute recommend for the AFP?]
Stratbase Institute president Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit recommends that the government accelerate the transformation of the AFP into a technologically capable force through the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC).
[How do Filipinos view the current defense strategy?]
According to Pulse Asia survey data, Filipinos consider support for the AFP and PCG as the most important measure for defending the country’s rights, with 86 percent of respondents supporting the government’s efforts to defend the West Philippine Sea alongside like-minded nations.
How do you believe a “whole-of-society” approach changes the way the nation addresses maritime security threats?
