An emerging El Niño event is significantly increasing the risk of wildfires across Borneo, threatening peatland areas designated for Indonesia’s flagship food estate program. Meteorological agencies, including Indonesia’s BMKG and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have confirmed a high likelihood of a strong El Niño this year, which typically brings hotter and drier conditions to the region’s carbon-heavy tropical peatlands.
The Risk to Peatland Agriculture
Environmental groups, including Walhi, have expressed concerns that ongoing rice paddy cultivation on peatlands could lead to widespread fires similar to those seen in previous decades. Janang Palanungkai, head of Walhi’s Central Kalimantan office, noted that wildfires have already increased by approximately 20 percent year-on-year through June. The government’s food estate project aims to develop over 80,000 hectares of rice fields in Central Kalimantan by 2025, a process that requires draining peat landscapes and, according to critics, heightens vulnerability to fire.
Did You Know? The 1997–98 El Niño saw devastating fires in Central Kalimantan triggered by the Mega Rice Project, which cut large canals through peat domes and fundamentally altered the landscape’s hydrology, leaving it increasingly inflammable during dry seasons.
Historical Precedent and Public Health
The potential for disaster is rooted in historical events, most notably the 1998 and 2015 El Niño cycles. During the 2015 fires, researchers estimated that the resulting haze may have caused approximately 100,000 premature deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Greenpeace has characterized such events as “man-made ecological disasters” caused by delayed rains failing to douse fires on peatlands that can burn for months.
Management and Enforcement Concerns
Campaigners highlight a systemic failure in land management, noting that protected forests have been converted into cultivation areas. Indra Syahnanda, a campaign lead for Walhi in West Kalimantan, reported that nearly 3 million hectares of peatlands have been converted through district-issued permits. In South Kalimantan, civil society groups have reported a disparity in law enforcement; Raden Rafiq of Walhi stated that police took action against only one of seven companies reported for fires in 2025, while communities clearing land for livelihoods often face stricter penalties.
Expert Insight: The intersection of national strategic projects and agro-extractive land use creates a complex fire risk profile. Based on the documented history of the Mega Rice Project, the drainage of peat domes remains a primary variable that, when combined with the extreme heat of a “very strong” El Niño, creates an environment where localized land-use decisions can escalate into regional public health crises.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current forecast for El Niño?
NOAA has forecasted a 63 percent chance that this year’s El Niño will reach “very strong” intensity, while the BMKG estimated a 50 to 60 percent chance of a moderate event starting mid-year.
Why are peatlands specifically vulnerable to fires?
Peatlands are carbon-heavy landscapes that become highly inflammable when drained for agricultural projects, such as the government’s rice paddy cultivation initiatives.
What is the primary concern regarding the food estate program?
Environmentalists, including those at Walhi, warn that the program is expanding onto peatlands and repeating the hydrological errors of the 1990s Mega Rice Project, which left the land susceptible to months-long fires during dry seasons.
How will the combination of intensified land use and climate volatility affect the safety of local communities in the coming months?
