SpaceX shares, which debuted on June 12 at $135, have fallen 26% to $150 following an initial surge. While some analysts maintain bullish targets as high as $800 to $900, historical data on large-cap IPOs suggests potential for further volatility and a possible decline toward $104 as lockup periods for insider shares expire.
SpaceX Reaches $1.7 Trillion Valuation Following June 12 IPO
SpaceX’s public market entry was marked by significant investor appetite. After raising a record $75 billion, the company reached a market valuation of $1.7 trillion at its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135 per share, as reported by The Motley Fool. The stock experienced an immediate rally, climbing 50% during its first three trading days to hit a peak of $202.
However, the momentum has since cooled. As of early July 2026, the stock has retreated 26% from its post-IPO high to trade at $150. Market observers attribute this decline to broader investor anxiety regarding the company’s recent bond issuance and the looming expiration of lockup agreements. Data from Finviz indicates that options traders are actively monitoring the stock, with heavy volume in both call and put contracts, reflecting a split sentiment among analysts. Current consensus targets for the 12-month period sit at $239.25, suggesting a 48.1% upside from recent trading levels.
Raymond James and Citi Project Future SpaceX Share Prices
Financial analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of SpaceX. Raymond James initiated coverage with a “strong buy” rating and a price target of $800, citing the potential for the company to become a “transportation network defined by commercial aviation-like operating cadence,” according to Yahoo Finance. Citi analyst John Godyn has set a $200 target but outlined a theoretical scenario where the stock could reach $900, contingent on the company achieving specific “key engineering milestones” at scale.
Conversely, some analysts caution that SpaceX’s valuation—currently trading at 101 times sales—is the most expensive in the Nasdaq-100. Historical data analyzed by Bloomberg suggests that large-cap IPOs often face downward pressure during their first year of trading. Based on historical averages for the 15 largest U.S. IPOs, stocks typically trade 2% below their IPO price after one year, with maximum drawdowns often exceeding 20%. If SpaceX follows this pattern, the stock could trade near $132 by June 2027, with the potential to dip as low as $104 during the interim.
Insiders Hold 95 Percent of SpaceX Shares Pending Lockup Expirations
A critical factor for investors to watch is the expansion of the public float. Currently, less than 5% of SpaceX’s 13.1 billion shares are available for public trading. The remaining 95% remains held by insiders and employees, subject to lockup periods that begin to expire in the coming weeks.
The supply of shares is expected to increase substantially through the latter half of 2026:
- Late July/Early August: At least 911 million shares (20% of early release shares) become eligible for sale.
- Post-August: Additional tranches of 7% of early release shares will become eligible at 70 days, 90 days, 105 days, 120 days, and 135 days post-IPO.
- Late October: The total public float is projected to reach at least 3 billion shares.
Starship 12th Test Flight Status Complicates Future Engineering Goals
As Moomoo and other financial outlets have noted, stock prices are fundamentally driven by supply and demand. The influx of these shares into the market may create significant volatility as investors digest the increased supply. While supporters view the company as a foundational infrastructure play for the 21st century, the path to a $900 valuation depends heavily on the successful, large-scale deployment of Starship and the technical viability of space-based data centers.
“The heavy rocket is still in development, recently completing its 12th test flight, and there’s no official timeline for completion,” reported Yahoo Finance, underscoring the risks that accompany the company’s ambitious engineering goals.
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