Tropical Storm Josie, the 10th tropical cyclone of 2026 for the Philippines, entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 12:30 am on Tuesday, July 14, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The storm currently poses no threat to the country as it remains near the eastern boundary of the PAR.
Did You Know? The international name for the storm is Haishen, a name contributed by China that refers to the god of the sea.
Josie’s Current Position and Projected Path
PAGASA located Josie 1,085 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 4 am Tuesday. The storm is moving northwest at 25 kilometers per hour, carrying maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gusts reaching 80 km/h.
Because the storm is staying near the eastern boundary, PAGASA has issued no rainfall or wind warnings. The agency reports that Josie could leave the PAR by Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, July 15.
Southwest Monsoon Risks in Ilocos Region
While Josie remains distant, the southwest monsoon, or habagat, is bringing active weather to the northwest. PAGASA expects rainfall to be confined to the Ilocos Region on Tuesday, specifically affecting Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union.
The agency warned that scattered rain and thunderstorms in these provinces could trigger flash floods and landslides. The rest of the country is expected to experience generally fair weather, aside from isolated rain from localized thunderstorms.
Maritime Warnings and Gale-Force Gusts
The southwest monsoon is generating strong to gale-force gusts across several regions. On Tuesday, July 14, these gusts will affect the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Cavite, Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro.
Maritime conditions are similarly volatile. PAGASA warns of rough seas with waves up to 3 meters high along the seaboards of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and the western seaboards of Pangasinan and the Babuyan Islands. Small vessels are advised not to venture out to sea in these areas.
Moderate to rough seas with waves up to 2.5 meters are expected in Batanes, Zambales, and the western seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro. Waves up to 2 meters are projected for the southern seaboard of Bataan and the northern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and the Calamian and Kalayaan Islands.
Forecast for July 15 and 16
Josie may be downgraded to a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and could further weaken into a low pressure area by Wednesday.
The southwest monsoon will continue to bring strong gusts through the week. On Wednesday, July 15, affected areas include the Ilocos Region, Abra, Apayao, Zambales, Bataan, Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands. By Thursday, July 16, these gusts are expected to persist in the Ilocos Region, Abra, Apayao, Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Tropical Storm Josie pose a direct threat to the Philippines?
No, according to PAGASA, the storm does not pose a threat as it will only stay near the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
Which areas are affected by the southwest monsoon?
Rainfall is expected in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union. Strong to gale-force gusts are affecting various regions including the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, and parts of Central Luzon and Southern Tagalog.
When is Tropical Storm Josie expected to leave the PAR?
The storm could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, July 15.
How does your local community prepare for the annual southwest monsoon season?
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