Public approval of Russian President Vladimir Putin has fallen, marking a five-percentage-point drop in a single week, according to data from the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM). This decline, the sharpest since the start of the “special military operation,” coincides with severe domestic fuel shortages and ongoing infrastructure instability, leaving the Kremlin facing its most significant internal pressure since the 2018 pension reforms.
Fuel Scarcity and the Erosion of Domestic Stability
Russia, long dubbed the “Gas Station of Europe,” is grappling with a significant fuel deficit, as reported by independent analysts. This crisis stems directly from Ukrainian drone strikes targeting critical energy infrastructure, with nine of the country’s ten largest refineries damaged. The resulting supply chain breakdown has forced the Kremlin to import record amounts of gasoline from Belarus—nearly 2.5 times more in June than in May—the highest level recorded since 1991.
For the average Russian, the impact is visible in the endless queues at service stations and surging prices. Gasoline costs have climbed in just over a month, pushing prices past the 100-ruble-per-liter mark in many regions. In the annexed Crimean peninsula, prices have reportedly exceeded 200 rubles per liter, signaling a collapse in the regional economy that once served as the crown jewel of Putin’s geopolitical narrative.
Did you know?
The “Crimea is ours” (Crimea nash) ideology served as a primary pillar of support for the Kremlin since 2014. Current reports indicate that the peninsula is suffering from chronic shortages of electricity, water, and internet, leading to a near-total loss of the summer tourism season.
Comparative Analysis: The 2018 Pension Precedent
The current drop in approval—from a sustained average over the last four years—mirrors the political fallout of the 2018 pension reform. During that period, public support for the president plummeted in less than two months. Crucially, the 2018 decline was most pronounced among the Kremlin’s core electoral base: citizens over the age of 50.
Sociopolitical analysts note that while the current crisis is triggered by economic factors, it carries a deeper risk: the erosion of the “victory” promise. The inability to secure a decisive outcome in the conflict, coupled with the daily reality of infrastructure failures—including mobile network outages and internet throttling—is testing the stoicism of a population that has endured two years of pandemic restrictions followed by five years of war.
The Future of Political Support for United Russia
With legislative elections looming in two months, the ruling party, United Russia, faces a precarious environment. Recent polling indicates approval for the party has dipped, with less than majority support. The Kremlin’s traditional strategy of minimizing negative public sentiment through restricted phone surveys appears less effective, as respondents feel increasingly emboldened by the tangible failures in essential services.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is fuel so expensive in Russia right now?
The shortage is primarily driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have crippled most of the country’s fuel production capacity.
How does current public support compare to previous years?
For the previous four years of the current conflict, his support had remained consistently high.
What is the status of the tourist industry in Crimea?
The industry is effectively paralyzed. Due to shortages in electricity, water, and basic goods, many businesses have suspended operations, and officials acknowledge the summer season has been lost.
How is the government responding to the fuel crisis?
The government has implemented regional anticrisis measures scheduled to last until September and has significantly increased fuel imports from Belarus to stabilize domestic supply.
What do you think is the biggest factor influencing public sentiment in Russia today? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for ongoing updates on geopolitical shifts.